Syria: Security situation likely to remain volatile through at least end January following the fall of the Assad government /update 7

The security situation in Syria will likely remain highly volatile through at least end January following the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad's government. The insurgents, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), seized control of Damascus Dec. 8, prompting Assad and his family to flee the country to Moscow, Russia.

Military Operations

Military operations are ongoing in northeastern Syria, where HTS' successes have fueled further resistance. Tensions between Kurdish groups, such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and Turkish-backed groups in northeastern Syria have escalated. Authorities in the so-called Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) - a Kurdish-controlled de facto self-governing region encompassing Al-Hasaka Governorate, as well as parts of Ar-Raqqa and Deir ez-Zur governorates - have declared a state of emergency effective Dec. 8. A US-brokered ceasefire was reached Dec. 11 between the SDF and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) in Manbij and Kobani, which led to the SDF retreating from both cities. However, negotiations failed Dec. 16, and armed clashes have intensified, particularly in Manbij and near the Tishrin Dam. Tensions will likely continue to escalate as SDF and SNA forces launch military operations to control strategic territory in northeastern Syria.

Syria's Military Operations Command continues to launch security operations in parts of the country to disarm, capture, and arrest fighters loyal to the Assad regime. Operations took place in Daraa Governorate Jan. 4 and Homs Governorate Jan. 2 against pro-Assad forces who refused to hand over their weapons. Syrian forces also previously launched an operation in Tartus and Latakia governorates Dec. 26 to capture members of Assad's former military forces.

Civil Unrest

Protest activity remains likely across the country, particularly in areas dominated by minority groups such as Alawite Shi'as, Christians, and Kurds. Thousands of protesters gathered in several cities, including Latakia, Tartus, and Homs Dec. 25 after a video depicting an attack on an Alawite shrine in Aleppo circulated online. Security forces imposed overnight curfews in Homs, Latakia, Jableh, and Tartus and increased security measures to quell the unrest. Earlier, protests erupted in the Christian suburbs of Damascus Dec. 24 in response to a video of a Christmas tree being set on fire.

Protests in Kurdish-controlled regions occasionally break out to denounce Turkiye's military intervention in Syria. Additional demonstrations are likely as clashes between the SDF and SNA fuel further instability.

Border Closures

Land border crossings between Syria and Lebanon, with the exception of the Masnaa border crossing linking Damascus and Beirut, remain closed due to repeated Israeli airstrikes. Iraqi authorities plan to reopen the border with Syria in early January but have not specified a date. Jordan, meanwhile, reopened the Jaber border crossing to trucks Dec. 18 after closing it due to security concerns Dec. 6. Authorities could implement further border closures and enhanced security measures if the situation deteriorates.

Foreign Airstrikes

The Israeli military continues to carry out airstrikes in Syria, targeting air defense systems, military airfields, missile depots, and weapons production sites, mainly around Aleppo, Damascus, and Hama. Reports indicate that Israel is particularly concerned over Assad's strategic weapons systems, including long-range missile and chemical weapons, and has destroyed 90 percent of Assad's former arsenal. IDF will likely continue these operations in the coming weeks.

Additionally, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) is continuing its campaign of airstrikes against the Islamic State (IS) as part of an ongoing effort to prevent the group from reconstituting. US bombers, fighter-bombers, and ground-attack aircraft struck at least 75 IS targets in central Syria Dec. 8. CENTCOM reported a strike that killed two IS operatives in Deir ez-Zur Governorate Dec. 24. CENTCOM could ramp up such strikes over the coming weeks to ensure that IS capabilities remain degraded.

Turkish forces also continue to carry out airstrikes in northern Syria, targeting Kurdish forces, as clashes continue between the SDF and the SNA in the east.

Militant Attacks

IS, one of the most active militant groups in Syria, will probably intensify its attacks on government forces, foreigners, and civilians. Criminal activity, including kidnappings and political assassinations, will also likely increase as the security environment worsens.

Militant attacks have also been reported in northeastern Syria. An explosion, reportedly due to a car bomb, killed two people in Manbij Dec. 24. Another car explosion was reported Dec. 27, causing damage but no casualties. While there was no immediate claim of responsibility for either incident, Manbij has been at the center of clashes between SDF and SNA forces.

Transport and Business Disruptions

The Syrian Civil Aviation Authority announced the resumption of international flights at Damascus International Airport (DAM) from Jan. 7. Domestic operations between Damascus and Aleppo resumed Dec. 18. Authorities had previously halted all flights Dec. 8.

The volatile situation in Syria, clashes, and possible protests could severely disrupt transport, business operations, and utilities. Airports in major cities, including Damascus and Aleppo, could suspend operations on short notice. Increased security will likely impact traffic along the main highways between Damascus, Homs, and Aleppo. Security forces could impose movement restrictive measures, including curfews and checkpoints.