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Libya Country Report

Country Risk Level

Critical

Overview

Executive Summary

The increasing level of foreign interference, military interventions, and competing interests have altered the trajectory of the Libyan civil war and caused a stalemate in the political process. Russia and Turkey are now the main decision-makers in Libya, a dynamic that has sidelined and weakened EU and UN efforts to reach a de-escalation in the conflict and a rapprochement between the Libyan rival political entities. Turkish backing for the GNA’s Operation ‘Peace Storm’ has enabled the GNA to drive the LNA out of Tripolitania in June 2020 and threaten the LNA’s control of Sirte and the Oil Crescent. The military progress, if any, made in the GNA’s push to secure the Oil Crescent will be the main factor in determining if and when the political process will fully resume; a definitive negotiated settlement to the conflict in 2020, however, appears highly unlikely.An assault on Sirte is likely to involve aviation assets from the various backers of the Libyan civil war, raising the risk of a shootdown of military aircraft in the area. If Sirte is captured, the risks to marine energy assets from Sirte to Ajdabiya, and to oil fields from Hun to Jalu, would likely increase.IHS Markit expects Libya's GDP to grow around 13% in 2019, after it grew, by our estimates, by 20% during 2018, thanks to a strong increase in oil production (the hydrocarbon sector's share is estimated to be more than 50% of total GDP). However, the Libyan economy is still expected to be around one-third of its 2012 size.

Operational Outlook

Foreign companies entering Libya face severe risks to both personnel and property given the ongoing civil war. The current insecurity and political uncertainty have compounded other significant domestic obstacles to investment, such as non-tariff barriers, including the country's unwieldy and corrupt bureaucracy; extensive regulation; and a confusing legal system that discriminates against foreigners.

Terrorism

The regrouping of Islamic State militants in central and southern Libya compounds the already high risk to foreign personnel and assets, particularly in Tripolitania and around the Murzuq basin. Energy assets are vulnerable to attack by militias and militants competing for control, particularly in the Sirte and Murzuq basins. Foreign workers at energy sites are vulnerable to kidnap. The government has no effective security apparatus capable of securing foreign and state assets, even in the capital Tripoli.

Crime

Violent crime in Libya has surged since the 2011 conflict. The majority of crime is targeted against personal property, including armed robbery, and carjacking. The risk of kidnapping has increased, with state officials and foreign and local workers regularly being targeted by militia groups seeking ransom payment or political concessions, particularly in Tripoli. High level of weapons ownership and the ubiquity of armed criminal gangs ensure that all crime carries a severe risk of violence. Law enforcement and crime prevention in Libya is primarily overseen by local militias. Response rates and effectiveness vary dramatically by location.

War Risks

Libya is embroiled in a civil war between militia coalitions loosely affiliated with two major competing poles of governance. Russian-Turkish growing involvement in the country’s civil war indicates increased war risks to oil infrastructure in the Oil Crescent and Fezzan. There is a specific threat to foreigners from jihadist groups in urban areas, particularly in the west of the country, and in the rural south.

Social Stability

High

Protesters are vulnerable to being killed or injured by opposing militias or individuals. Libya's ruling class of militia warlords, tribal leaders, and local politicians have failed to bridge deep tribal, racial, and social divisions. This lack of reconciliation has exacerbated social and political divisions, usually along tribal lines, that greatly increases the risk of small-scale conflicts, while reducing the prospect of a viable long-term constitutional settlement that enjoys the support of all Libya's stakeholders.

Health Risk

Vaccinations required to enter the country

Proof of vaccination against yellow fever is required for all individuals traveling from a country with risk of yellow fever transmission.

Routine Vaccinations

Hepatitis A: A vaccine is available for anyone over one year of age. The vaccine may not be effective for certain people, e.g. those born before 1945 and who lived as a child in a developing country and/or have a past history of jaundice (icterus). These people can instead get a shot of immune globulin (IG) to boost their immunity against the disease.

Hepatitis B: A vaccine is available for children at least two months old.

Diphtheria-Tetanus-Polio: A booster shot should be administered if necessary (once every ten years).

Other Vaccinations

Typhoid Fever: If your travels take you to regions with poor sanitary conditions (for children two years old and up).

Rabies: For prolonged stays in an isolated region (for children from when they can walk).

Meningococcal Meningitis: For prolonged stays, or in case your travels will put you in close contact with a local population affected by an epidemic of the disease (for children over the age of two years).

Malaria: Recommended preventive medication - chloroquine (sometimes marketed as Nivaquine).

For Children: All standard childhood immunizations should be up-to-date. In the case of a long stay, the BCG vaccine is recommended for children over one month and the MMR (measles-mumps-rubella) vaccine for children over nine months.

Transportation

Access to the country is very difficult given the heavy damage to its principal airports (e.g. Tripoli International Airport [TIP], which is currently undergoing reconstruction) during the past seven years of fighting. Many international airlines no longer operate flights to smaller airports in the country that are still active and Libyan airlines are banned from European Union airspace due to security concerns, limiting the routes into and out of Libya. Improvements are being made with domestic and international flights now operating from Benina International Airport (BEN) in Benghazi.

The primary point of access to Tripoli is via flights from Tunisia to the limited-capacity Mitiga Airport (MJI). However, fighting in the area has resulted in intermittent closures of the facility in recent months. The main roads linking coastal urban centers are frequently the site of clashes between militias jockeying for strategic positioning. Road checkpoints are common throughout the country. Links with the south remain tenuous at best given poor road connections. Travelers are advised that any essential travel between the north and south should take place only by air.

Practical Information

Climate

The climate in Libya varies significantly from north to south. Coastal regions enjoy a Mediterranean climate: hot (30°C) and dry summers and cool, rainy winters with temperatures falling as low as 8°C. Heading south slightly to the plains, the climate becomes semi-arid. Heading further south you reach the desert and its arid conditions. From late spring until early autumn a hot, dry, and dusty southerly wind sometimes blows north across the country all the way to the coastal cities.

Useful Numbers

Country Code: +218
Police-Emergency: 33 35 613 or 614

Electricity

Voltage: 127 V ~ 50 Hz

Outlets:

Risk Level
Critical High Medium Low Minimal