Heightened Tensions Between New Government and Minority Groups in Syria Likely to Persist

Many minority groups remain suspicious of HTS due to its past links with militant organizations and roots in the Salafi-jihadi ideology. HTS' predecessor, Jabhat al-Nusra, was an al-Qaeda-affiliated organization formed in 2012 with the goal of overthrowing then-president Bashar al-Assad's government and establishing an Islamic state in Syria. While HTS split with al-Qaeda in 2016 to pursue a more moderate stance and focus its operations on Syria, the US and UK, as well as the UN and EU, have designated it a terrorist organization. Additionally, the situation remains tense following a series of attacks on Christian and Alawite sites at the end of December, triggering large protests.  Although HTS promptly arrested perpetrators of the attacks, minority groups fear that HTS' takeover has emboldened militants. 

Despite interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa's pledge to protect religious minorities following the attacks, HTS' focus on consolidating its political power means that it is unable to provide an adequate level of security. The Alawites, for example, have seen an increase in targeting due to their perceived loyalty to the Assad regime. The Assad family belongs to the Alawite sect, who comprise approximately ten percent of Syria's population. The Alawites occupied a privileged position under the Assad regime, holding the majority of top positions in the government, military, and intelligence services. Some Syrians who had suffered under Assad's regime are taking matters into their own hands and calling for mass violence against the Alawites. Many Alawites have made it clear that they would not disarm unless HTS provides security guarantees for their community. If HTS forces Alawites to disarm without meeting these demands, it could potentially lead to more clashes. 

As with the Alawites, the Kurds have also seen increased targeting in the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) following HTS' takeover. Since December, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), who had coordinated with HTS in ousting Assad, has launched an offensive in AANES to retake areas under the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) control. While SDF commander Mazloum Abdi has met with Sharaa to discuss the group's integration and possible ceasefire, negotiations could falter if the violence in AANES intensifies. The SDF intends to retain control of the region and keep its military wing as a separate unit under the Syrian defense ministry, citing threats from the SNA and Turkiye. This, however, runs contrary to HTS' vision for a unified Syrian state without federal regions. Hence, tensions between SDF and HTS will likely continue unless they reach a compromise. 

Due to the precarious security situation and fears of attacks, many minority groups are refusing HTS' orders to disarm. While HTS has been carrying out negotiations with minority groups, it has not ruled out the possibility of military operations if the groups fail to comply.  As the situation remains volatile, HTS will have to thread carefully to ensure post-Assad Syria is not further divided along sectarian lines. 

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