Mexico: Hurricane season expected to be above-normal /update 1

Event

On Wednesday, August 9, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its 2017 Atlantic hurricane season predictions. According to the new forecasts, there is a 60 percent chance that the season will be above-average, with 14-19 named storms and two to five major hurricanes. The NOAA said that it could be the most active season since 2010 and that peak season (August through October) has just started.

Context

Hurricane Dora, the first hurricane of the season near Mexico, formed off the southwest coast of the country on June 26 with maximum sustained winds of around 130 km/h (80 mph). Tropical Storm Franklin, which is expected to turn into a hurricane, is expected to make landfall in the state of Veracruz at around 01:00 (local time) on Thursday, August 10. It is then forecast to weaken back into a tropical storm as it moves inland towards the Mexico City region, reaching the area early Thursday afternoon.

Mexico is gearing up to deal with its dual hurricane seasons, with multiple storms striking both from the Caribbean Sea and from the Pacific Ocean on an annual basis. Hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific officially begins on Monday, May 15, and runs until November 30. Hurricane season in the North Atlantic officially starts two weeks later, on June 1, and also runs until the end of November. The largest concentration of storms typically occurs between August and October. Early storms have already been reported in both regions, including Tropical Storm Arlene - detected in the Atlantic in late April - and Tropical Storm Adrian - which ran along the Pacific coasts of Guatemala and Mexico. Neither storm made landfall, although Adrian did bring torrential rain to Mexico’s western coast.

Hurricanes have the potential to cause major damage and loss of life, as well as widespread travel disruptions and power outages. Mexico's coastal regions are must vulnerable but hurricanes and storm remnants can move significantly inland. Hurricane Patricia, one of the strongest storms ever recorded, pounded Mexico's western coast in late October 2015. In August 2016, Tropical Storm Earl and its remnants resulted in flooding and landslides in central and southeastern Mexico, leaving more than 50 people dead.

Advice

Individuals present in the region are advised to stay abreast of information regarding storms via the US-based National Hurricane Center and/or local media. In the event of a storm, individuals present in areas forecast to be affected should stock up on enough food and water to last several days, follow all instructions issued by local authorities, and distance themselves from the coast and other bodies of water. If an evacuation order is given, leave immediately; otherwise, remain indoors until authorities have indicated that the storm has passed; wait for this declaration, keeping in mind that the "eye" of the storm is marked by calm, clear conditions but is followed by the most powerful and destructive part of the storm.