Iraq: Shi’a Muslims to celebrate Ashura Sep. 29 - Oct. 1

Event

Ashura, the tenth day of the month of Muharram on the Islamic calendar and one of the most holy days in Shi’a Islam, is set to take place between Friday, September 29, and Sunday, October 1 (depending on the sighting of the moon). In Iraq, the city of Karbala (65 km [40 mi] southwest of the capital Baghdad) will see a large influx of pilgrims who come to pay homage to Hussain, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, who died in battle in Karbala.

Transportation disruptions and increased security are likely around majority Shi’a neighborhoods and on major pilgrimage routes between Iraq’s major cities and the Karbala shrine. Short-notice lane and full route closures are likely. There is an increased likelihood of Sunni extremist groups, including the Islamic State (IS), targeting Shi’a Muslims in terrorist attacks during Ashura.

Context

Ashura is commemorated by Shi’a Muslims as a day of mourning for the martyrdom of Hussain, who died at the Battle of Karbala. Large public gatherings are common during Ashura, sometimes featuring self-flagellation and lamentations.

The Shi’a-dominated south is less permissive to IS; however, the group retains the intent and capability to conduct high-profile attacks and often prioritizes major public gatherings such as Ashura processions. The Iraqi and Kurdish militaries’ recent successes against IS (Mosul, Tal Afar, and ongoing operation in Hawijah) are likely to spur retaliatory attacks and there is much evidence to assume that as IS continues to lose its territory, it will increasingly employ asymmetrical means of warfare (e.g. terrorist tactics).

Advice

Exercise caution during Ashura celebrations in Shi’a communities, particularly in the central regions where Shia and Sunni majority communities are intermingled. Caution is also advised in the 48 hours following the commemorations; IS has previously targeted returning pilgrims after major religious festivals to take advantage of the easing of security and travel restrictions. Foreign personnel also should remain aware of cultural and religious sensitivities; failure to observe local customs regarding the display of flags and other symbols has sparked major protests in the past.

More generally, the security environment in Iraq remains complex. Although travel is permissible in some areas, other areas should be considered strictly off-limits. Professional security advice and support should be sought prior to all travel. Due to the prevailing terrorist threat, individuals should remain vigilant and report any suspicious objects or behavior to the authorities. Always be on guard when visiting sites deemed particularly likely to be targeted in an attack (public transportation, train stations, ports, airports, public or government buildings, embassies or consulates, international organizations, schools and universities, religious sites, markets, hotels and restaurants frequented by foreigners/Westerners, festivals, etc.).