Zimbabwe: Military backs anti-Mugabe protest planned November 18 /update 8

Event

The Zimbabwean military announced its support on Friday evening (local time) for a mass protest demanding President Robert Mugabe's resignation that is planned to take place in Harare on Saturday, November 18. The protest, organized by the Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans Association, is expected to mobilize at the Zimbabwe Grounds in the Highfield area of the capital from 10:00-15:00 on Saturday.

The military's announcement also comes as at least eight out of ten regional Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) party branches voted on Friday evening for Mugabe to resign from the presidency and as party secretary. Several regional leaders also reportedly appeared on state media calling for Mugabe's resignation. Unconfirmed reports released Thursday suggested that Mugabe may go into exile following the ruling ZANU-PF party's congress in December 2017 or following elections in 2018. On Friday, leaders of the ZANU-PF party were reportedly drafting a resolution for Mugabe's potential ouster this weekend (if Mugabe does not resign before then), and formal impeachment by Tuesday, November 21, according to a senior party source. Despite these reports, the situation remains uncertain and predictions of the country's path forward continue to be speculative.

Though Zimbabwean soldiers remain stationed at several key sites throughout Harare, commercial establishments in the capital and at Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport (HRE) were reportedly operating normally, and the environment was calm as of Friday. Political protests, a heightened security presence, and consequent transportation disruptions are, however, expected in the coming days, especially in Harare.

Context

Zimbabwe's military took control of state broadcaster ZBC in Harare early on November 15. A military spokesperson read a statement on live television noting that President Mugabe was safe, that his security was "guaranteed," and that the takeover was intended to "deal with those committing crimes" against the Zimbabwean people. The spokesperson added that the situation would normalize "once the mission is accomplished." The military has promised to keep the public safe, while advising individuals to limit movements and noting that "any provocation will be met with an appropriate response."

The events of the last few days transpired in an already tense political climate in Zimbabwe. On November 6, Mugabe fired Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa for allegedly plotting against the government; Mnangagwa was also expelled from the ruling ZANU-PF party, and shortly thereafter left the country. The action, widely seen as clearing the way for President Mugabe's wife, Grace Mugabe, to take over the position, added further friction within the already factionalizing ZANU-PF party. On November 13, General Chiwenga, a ZANU-PF member, criticized the purge of high-ranking ZANU-PF members who had fought in the country's war for independence in the 1960s and 1970s. Mnangagwa reportedly returned to Zimbabwe on Wednesday or Thursday; he is favored by the Zimbabwean military to assume the presidency.

Mugabe came to power after Zimbabwe gained independence in 1980 and, though 93 years old, has not named a successor nor indicated a clear plan for what would come after his departure. ZANU-PF again endorsed him as its candidate - despite serious health concerns - for the 2018 election. However, the party has become divided over who will eventually succeed him, leading to rising tensions. Domestic and international leaders have made explicit or implicit calls for Mugabe's resignation in recent months.

Advice

Individuals in Zimbabwe, particularly in Harare, are advised to closely monitor the situation and avoid large public gatherings and unnecessary movements until the situation has stabilized. If outside travel is necessary, individuals should anticipate delays at military checkpoints and should cooperate with any requests made by officials.