Mexico: Hurricane Willa and Storm Vincente off Pacific coast /update 1

Event

Two cyclones are currently present off of Mexico’s western coast. More notably of the two is Hurricane Willa, measuring as a category 4 storm on the five-point Saffir-Simpson wind scale (“extremely dangerous”), with sustained winds of nearly 250 km/h (155 mph). Willa was located approximately 255 km (155 mi) southwest of Cabo Corrientes (Jalisco state) and moving in a northerly direction as of 06:00 (local time) on Monday, October 22. Willa is currently forecast to veer east, making landfall on Tuesday evening or night in the north of Nayarit state or the south of Sinaloa, potentially as a category 5 storm. A hurricane warning is in effect for the coastline between San Blas and Mazatlán (including the Islas Marías archipelago); lower tropical storm warnings are in effect spanning from this area south to Pérula and north to Bahía Tempehuaya. Willa is expected to bring storm surges and up to 46 cm (18 in) of rainfall to western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa; potentially life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are possible. Rainfall of up to 10 cm (4 in) is forecast for inland areas, including parts of Zacatecas, Durango, Chihuahua, and Coahuila states. Associated transportation disruptions are also possible.

Tropical Storm Vicente was located approximately 310 km (195 mi) south of Acapulco (Guerrero) as of 04:00 on Monday. Vicente is moving in a north-northeasterly direction and is expected weaken into a tropical depression before making landfall in Jalisco or Colima overnight October 23-24. No storm warnings are currently in effect.

Context

Mexico's Pacific Hurricane Season extends from May 15 to November 30 (and the Atlantic Hurricane Season from June 1 to November 30), with the largest concentration of storms typically occurring between August and October.

Advice

Individuals in Mexico are advised to follow weather forecasts issued by the Mexican weather service in the coming hours and days and adhere to any advice issued by regional authorities (e.g. potential evacuation orders). In the event of flooding, keep in mind that driving or walking through running water can be dangerous - 15 cm (6 in) of running water is enough to knock over an adult.