Madagascar: Second round of presidential elections likely December 19 /update 2

Event

According to provisional results from the first round of presidential elections released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) on Saturday, November 17, Andry Rajoelina is in the lead with 39.19 percent of the vote, versus Marc Ravalomanana's 35.29. Incumbent President Hery Rajaonarimampianina only secured 8.84 percent. As none of the candidates received more than 50 percent, a second round is expected to take place on December 19, once the Constitutional Court officially confirms the results of the first round on November 26. Political gatherings and demonstrations are likely in the lead up to the second round; unrest cannot be ruled out.

Context

The first round of presidential elections was held on November 7. According to the CENI, the participation rate was 54.32 percent. Multiple candidates, including Rajaonarimampianina and Ravalomanana, have claimed that irregularities occurred during the voting, calling the elections fraudulent. These accusations have been denied by the CENI.

Advice

As a precautionary measure, individuals present in Madagascar are advised to monitor local media, avoid all demonstrations due to the risk of violence, and refrain from discussing domestic political issues in public.