Ukraine, Russia: Spike in ceasefire violations likely to persist in Donbas through late April amid increased Russian troop deployments near Ukrainian borders /update 1

Event

An escalation in ceasefire violations between the Ukrainian armed forces and pro-Russia separatist militants along the line of contact in Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions will likely persist through late April. At least 27 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in such incidents since early January.

Although ceasefire violations are fairly common, the recent spike in incidents underscores the risks presented by low-level conflict and general lawlessness in the region. Recent developments will likely result in an elevated security posture throughout the Donbas region. The Ukrainian military may increase armed patrols and checkpoints, as well as deploy additional combat forces near the line of contact.

The escalation comes amid heightened tensions between Ukraine and Russia, with Moscow engaging in a buildup of military forces in Crimea, as well as along Russia's borders with eastern and northern Ukraine. Large deployments of Russian troops and military equipment have been reported. While the Kremlin's motives are unclear, the likelihood of direct armed conflict between the two nations is low. Nevertheless, Russian troop movements may still prompt a reaction from Kyiv, including increased military deployments to the Donbas and shared border regions with Russia. As recently as April 14, Ukraine's armed forces conducted defensive drills in the Kherson Region, which borders Crimea.

Elevated military activity by both countries could also increase the potential for other types of confrontations similar to the November 2018 incident in which the Russian coast guard fired upon and detained three Ukrainian naval vessels transiting the Kerch Strait while en route to the Sea of Azov from the Black Sea. While any such incident is unlikely to provoke a wider confrontation, it may prompt nationalist protests in Ukraine's major urban centers, particularly Kyiv.

Context

Despite signing another ceasefire agreement with separatist forces in July 2020, Ukraine remains engaged in a low-level conflict in the eastern Donbas region. Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, and has since regularly increased or decreased troop deployments under various pretexts. Russian officials claim the recent deployments are part of snap military exercises due to conclude within the next two weeks, though no date has been specified. Relations between Kyiv and Moscow remain tense, and any moves by the Ukrainian military to counter Russian troop movements or political statements in support of Ukraine's territorial sovereignty are likely to provoke belligerent rhetoric from Moscow. Nonetheless, the possibility of the troop movements triggering a wider deterioration in the relationship between the two countries is low.