Ethiopia: Anti-government protests likely to continue in Amhara region through early May

Event

Further anti-government protests are likely in cities across the Amhara region through at least early May in reaction to a recent upswing in violence between the ethnic-Amhara and Oromo communities. Demonstrations initially broke out on April 19 in several cities in the region, including Bahir Dar, Wolldia, Finote Selam, Dessie, Debre Berhan, and Debre Markos, with activists denouncing the ruling Prosperity Party (PP) for failing to prevent the killings of ethnic-Amharas in North Shewa and Western Oromia, as well as in Benshangul-Gumuz Regional State's Metekel Zone.

Authorities will likely maintain a heightened security posture in urban centers across the Amhara region until the demonstrations and incidents of violence abate. Security personnel could use force, including teargas and live ammunition, to disperse crowds; localized curfews are possible. Protesters may throw stones at police and indiscriminately attack vehicles passing near rallies. Transport disruptions are possible, as security forces may close roads leading into and out of towns where protests are taking place. Commercial disruptions are likely near any protest activity or ethnic violence. Authorities may limit or block access to mobile and internet communications during periods of severe unrest.

Context

While clashes between the Oromo and Amhara communities have been occurring since mid-March, the latest spate of communal violence began in Ataye, North Shewa Zone, on April 16. The clashes left at least 18 people dead and an unspecified number of others injured over the course of three days and prompted the government to declare a state of emergency in the southern part of the Amhara region on April 18. Regional security officials regularly accuse the Oromo Liberation Front-Shene (OLF-S) of attacks. The group is a breakaway faction of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), which split off after the OLF signed a peace accord with the federal government in August 2018. The OLF-S remains active in the western Oromia and North Shewa zones of the Amhara Region.

Advice

As a precaution, avoid all demonstrations that may materialize, as well as potential protest sites and locations where security forces appear to be assembling through at least early May. Exit the area immediately or shelter in place if violence breaks out. Use alternative routes to avoid rally venues; allow additional time to reach destinations.