Caribbean Sea: Tropical Storm Elsa tracking west-northwestward in the Caribbean Sea July 3 /update 5

Event

Elsa has weakened to a tropical storm and is tracking west-northwest in the Caribbean Sea. As of 17:00 AST July 3, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 210 km (130 miles) southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. Forecast models indicate the system will continue tracking west-northwestward toward Cuba, making landfall as a tropical storm near Cienfuegos, July 5. From there, it will likely track northwestward across Cuba, reaching the northern city of Matanzas during the afternoon of July 5. Early forecasts suggest the storm will subsequently turn northward across the Straits of Florida, making close approaches to Key West and Saint Petersburg-Clearwater, Florida, early July 6 and July 7 respectively. Elsa will then likely begin moving northeast and make landfall as a tropical storm near Homosassa Springs, Florida, July 7. After landfall, the system is forecast to weaken as it tracks northeastwards across Florida and Georgia July 7, transiting South Carolina and North Carolina early July 8, reaching the North Carolina-Virginia border by the afternoon of July 8. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

Government Advisories
As of 17:00 AST July 3, the following warnings and watches are in effect:

• Hurricane Warning: The southern portion of Haiti from Port-au-Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic

• Hurricane Watch: The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

• Tropical Storm Warning: Jamaica, the coast of Haiti north of Port-au-Prince; the southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti; and the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos

• Tropical Storm Watch: The south coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano; Cayman Brac and Little Cayman; the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana; and the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours and days.

Hazardous Conditions
Elsa will likely bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to Puerto Rico through July 3, southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through July 4, and the Cayman Islands and Cuba through July 5. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, rivers, and urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Forecast models indicate rainfall of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches), with isolated maximum amounts of 38 cm (15 inches), across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica. Models also forecast 13-26 cm (5-10 inches) of rainfall across portions of Cuba, with isolated maximum amounts of 38 cm (15 inches). In the Cayman Islands, rainfall of 8-15 cm (3-6 inches) is forecast. Much of Florida will likely see 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) of rain, with localized maximum amounts up to 15 cm (6 inches). The forecast heavy rainfall could trigger flash flooding and mudslides, potentially isolating some communities for several days.

Prolonged sea swells and storm surge generated by the system may result in coastal flooding. Forecasts predict storm surges of 0.9-1.5 meters (3-5 feet) for the southern coast of Cuba, and 0.6-1.2 meters (2-4 feet) for the southern coast of Hispaniola. Persistent onshore flow could make it difficult for the surge to recede and for water levels to decrease in coastal river catchments. In addition to the heavy rain, flooding, and storm surge, Elsa could produce damaging wind gusts, resulting in power outages due to fallen trees and toppled utility lines.

Transport
In addition to the immediate threat to personal safety, inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions through July 3 in Puerto Rico, July 4 in southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, and July 5 in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding could persist well after weather conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast adverse conditions. Heed all evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming days.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
National Weather Service
Cuba Instituto de Meteorologia (Spanish)
Dominican Republic Oficina Nacional de Meteorologia (Spanish)
Dominica Meteorological Service
Haiti Centre national de meteorologie (French)
Jamaica Meteorological Service