Caribbean Sea: Tropical Storm Elsa tracking west-northwestward in the Caribbean Sea, July 4 /update 7

Event

Tropical Storm Elsa is tracking northwest in the Caribbean Sea, July 4. As of 17:00 AST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 20 km (15 miles) west of Cabo Cruz, Cuba. Forecast models indicate the system will continue on its current path and maintain its current strength as it passes of Cuba's southern coast, making landfall as a tropical storm near Cienfuegos, July 5. The system will subsequently track northwestward across Cuba, reaching the northern city of Cardenas during the afternoon of July 5. Early forecasts suggest the storm will retain its current force and turn northward across Florida's Straits, making a close approach to Key West, Florida, early July 6.

Elsa will then likely begin moving northeast and make landfall as a tropical storm near Saint Petersburg-Clearwater, Florida, July 7. After landfall, the system is forecast to retain its tropical storm force as it tracks northeastwards across Florida July 7 but weaken before exiting the state and continuing to South Carolina early July 8. Elsa is forecast to track northeastwards across South Carolina and North Carolina and exit into the North Atlantic Ocean early June 9. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

Government Advisories
As of 17:00 AST July 4, the following warnings and watches are in effect:

• Hurricane Watch: The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba.

• Tropical Storm Warning: The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana; Jamaica; the Florida Keys from Craig Key west to Dry Tortugas.

• Tropical Storm Watch: Cayman Brac and Little Cayman; the Cuban province of Artemisa; the Florida Keys from Craig Key eastward to Ocean Reef; Florida Bay; the west coast of Florida from Flamingo north to Anclote River.

• Storm Surge Watch: West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River.

Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours and days.

A state of emergency has been declared for Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, DeSoto, Hardee, Hernando, Hillsborough, Lee, Levy, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Pasco, Pinellas, and Sarasota counties in Florida in advance of Tropical Storm Elsa.

At least one death in Saint Lucia and two deaths in the Dominican Republic due to Tropical Storm Elsa have been reported, and at least 43 houses were damaged in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Barbados has been the most affected, with at least 1,100 houses suffering varying degrees of damage and 62 having completely collapsed. Crews are continuing to resolve widespread power outages as of the evening of July 4; Grantley Adams International Airport (GAIA) has reopened.

Hazardous Conditions
Elsa will likely bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to the Cayman Islands and Cuba through July 5, and Florida through July 7. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, rivers, and urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Forecast models indicate 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 38 cm (15 inches), across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through at least July 4. Models also forecast 13-26 cm (5-10 inches) of rainfall across portions of Cuba, with isolated maximum amounts of 38 cm (15 inches) through at least July 5. In the Cayman Islands, rainfall of 8-13 cm (3-5 inches) is forecast. Much of Florida will likely see 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) of rain, with localized maximum amounts up to 15 cm (6 inches). The forecast heavy rainfall could trigger flash flooding and mudslides, potentially isolating some communities for several days.

Prolonged sea swells and storm surge generated by the system may result in coastal flooding. Forecasts predict storm surges of 0.9-1.5 meters (3-5 feet) for the southern coast of Cuba, 0.6-1.2 meters (2-4 feet) for the southern coast of Hispaniola, and 0.3-0.6 meters (1-2 feet) for Craig Key to Dry Tortugas, Florida. Persistent onshore flow could make it difficult for the surge to recede and for water levels to decrease in coastal river catchments. In addition to the heavy rain, flooding, and storm surge, Elsa could produce damaging wind gusts, resulting in power outages due to fallen trees and toppled utility lines.

Transport
In addition to the immediate threat to personal safety, inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions through July 5 in the Cayman Islands and Cuba, and July 7 in Florida. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding could persist well after weather conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast adverse conditions. Heed all evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming days.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
National Weather Service
Cuba Instituto de Meteorologia (Spanish)
Dominican Republic Oficina Nacional de Meteorologia (Spanish)
Dominica Meteorological Service
Haiti Centre national de meteorologie (French)
Jamaica Meteorological Service