Nepal: Further protests likely nationwide through July following the reinstatement of parliament

Event

Further demonstrations are likely in Nepal, especially in Kathmandu, through July, following the Supreme Court's decision to reinstate the dissolved lower house of parliament. The Supreme Court also ordered the president to appoint opposition leader and Nepali Congress party leader Sher Bahadur Deuba to replace Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli. Activists supporting Oli held protests in Kathmandu following the verdict July 12.

The largest gatherings are likely in the Kathmandu Valley, including Bhaktapur, Kathmandu, and Lalitpur districts. Ongoing COVID-19 gathering restrictions may affect the turnout; participation in urban centers is typically higher. Earlier demonstrations in Kathmandu have involved thousands of people. Organizers do not typically publicize demonstration details in advance; gathering venues and timings are subject to change at short notice.

Security forces will almost certainly deploy to sensitive sites such as government buildings, political party offices, and rally venues, especially in Kathmandu. Clashes between police and activists could occur; authorities may try to break up more disruptive rallies. Police have dispersed protests with water cannons and arrested protesters during similar protests. Localized transport disruptions are likely near well-attended demonstrations. Business disruptions are also possible, especially if violence occurs.

Context

Political protests have occurred nationwide since Oli proposed to dissolve parliament hours after several lawmakers filed a no-confidence motion against his government in December 2020. The decision was revoked by the Supreme Court Feb. 23, leading to the breakup of the ruling NCP into the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) and the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre. The Oli-led CPN-UML is also headed towards a split between factions in support of, and against PM Oli. Demonstrations are likely to continue in the medium term, with sporadic violence possible.

Advice

Exercise caution around government buildings, mainly in Kathmandu. Avoid rallies due to possible clashes. If violence breaks out nearby, take shelter in a secure, non-governmental building. Follow all security personnel instructions. Monitor trusted local news sources, as organizers may not announce protests in advance. Allow additional travel time near demonstrations. Confirm business appointments and transport reservations in advance.