Ethiopia: Security situation likely to remain volatile in Tigray region at least through late August

Event

The security situation in Ethiopia's Tigray region will likely remain volatile through at least late August amid ongoing hostilities between rebels from the Tigray Defense Force (TDF) and troops of the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) supported by regional militias. After succeeding in retaking the regional capital Mekelle in late June, Tigray leaders rebuffed the federal government's subsequent declaration of a unilateral ceasefire, asserting that they would consider no such agreement until the administration in Addis Ababa restores telecommunications, transportation, and other public services. The TDF has also demanded a full withdrawal of troops from Eritrea and neighboring Amhara state as a precondition for a ceasefire. Meanwhile, Tigrayan forces have continued to press their advantage on the battlefield, launching a new offensive along the southern front into the areas in and around the Raya Azebo woreda and capturing several towns, including Chercher, Alamata, and Korem, by mid-July. The TDF currently appears to be in control of most of the eastern and north-central areas of the region and has pledged to push federal troops out of Tigray completely; however, government forces still control the region's Western Zone and the southern half of the North-Western Zone (Semien Mi'irabawi Zone). Despite their recent successes, rebel forces will have to engage in significant fighting along their western front to achieve their declared objective. There is as yet no indication that the TDF may attempt to seize areas outside the boundaries of Tigray; however, such a move cannot be completely ruled out depending on future developments.

At the same time, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government has been mobilizing forces to launch a fresh counteroffensive into Tigray - a move that will intensify fighting in the region for at least the mid-term. However, in addition to federal troops assisted by Amhara militia units, Addis Ababa's new push against the TDF will be supported by militias from three regional states that had previously not participated in the conflict - Oromia, Sidama, and Somalia states - all of which plan to send reinforcements to back military operations in Tigray. Moreover, authorities in Amhara have also declared a state of emergency in that state's northern zone and had urged residents to report in at Mayterbi by July 13 with any government-issued or private firearms they possess. Nevertheless, while it appears clear that a counteroffensive is looming, the operation's exact timing and immediate objectives remain unclear.

Future fighting will exacerbate existing problems plaguing the Tigray region. Severe damage to infrastructure has led to prolonged utility and communications disruptions; hospitals and other emergency medical providers, including ambulance services, are significantly hampered in their ability to operate. TDF authorities could implement strict security measures, including restrictions on communications, curfews, or bans on public gatherings. Acts of civil unrest or large celebratory gatherings are possible in response to any battlefield successes or setbacks.

Advice

Consider deferring travel to the Tigray Region until the situation stabilizes. Avoid all military installations, administrative buildings, and strategic infrastructure that may be targeted for attack, including power stations and media, communications, and transport facilities. Persons in Tigray should liaise with trusted contacts. Avoid all demonstrations, crowds, and concentrations of security personnel. Immediately depart the area if violence occurs or crowds form; take shelter in a secure building. Confirm routes, road access conditions, and destination security before conducting ground movements and when planning freight shipments. If traveling is unavoidable, do so in convoy and allow additional time to reach destinations due to potential roadblocks. Obtain satellite phones for emergency use; SMS messages are usually more reliable than calls when cellular networks are restricted. Register and maintain contact with your diplomatic mission.