Western Pacific: Tropical Storm Lupit tracks northeastward in East China Sea late Aug. 7 /update 8

Event

Tropical Storm Lupit was tracking northeastward in the East China Sea late Aug. 7. As of 23:00 JST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 257 km (160 miles) west of Kadena Airbase, Okinawa Prefecture, Japan. Forecast models indicate the system will slightly intensify as it transits northeastward through the East China Sea before likely making landfall near Makurazaki, Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan, late Aug. 8. The storm is then forecast to maintain its strength as it continues to track northeastward over Kyushu and southern Honshu's Hiroshima, Okayama, and Tottori prefectures early Aug. 9 before exiting into the Sea of Japan later Aug. 9. The system is projected to still maintain its strength before making another landfall in southern Akita Prefecture Aug. 10; the storm will then likely track eastward across Tohoku Region's Iwate Prefecture before finally exiting into the North Pacific Ocean by late Aug. 10. Some uncertainty remains in the system's track and intensity forecast, and changes may occur over the coming days.

Government Advisories
As of early Aug. 8, the following warnings and alerts are in effect:

• Japan Meteorological Agency: Various advisories, including for heavy rain (inundation), flooding, storm gales, high waves, storm surge, and thunderstorms, are in effect for parts of Okinawa Prefecture, southern Kyushu and the Amami Islands, and northern Kyushu.

  
  Through the afternoon of Aug. 9, heavy rainfall is likely to affect much of western Japan, with rainfall totals of up to 45 cm (18 inches) possible in northern Kyushu, as well as in Yamaguchi Prefecture. Lesser rainfall totals of up to 35 cm (14 inches) are possible in Shikoku and southern Kyushu over the same period, while up to 25 cm (10 inches) of rainfall are possible in parts of southern Honshu, including Osaka.
  

• Taiwan Central Weather Bureau: An extremely heavy rain advisory is in effect for Kaohsiung City and Pingtung County. A heavy rain advisory is in effect for Tainan City, as well as for Chiayi and Taitung counties.

Authorities may issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards. The possibility of localized evacuations cannot be discounted if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Hazardous Conditions
The storm may bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to much of Japan, as well as to parts of Taiwan and southern South Korea, over the coming days. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, rivers, and urban areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides are possible in steeply sloped terrains. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days. Prolonged swells and storm surge generated by the system will likely result in coastal flooding. Persistent onshore flow could make it difficult for the surge to recede and for water levels to decrease in coastal river catchments.

Transport
In addition to the immediate threat to personal safety, inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions. Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after weather conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Health
Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. The threat of these disease outbreaks is usually elevated in the low-income or underdeveloped areas of major urban centers due to incomplete or open sewer lines. The latent threat of waterborne contaminants from inundated industrial sites cannot be discounted; exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast adverse weather conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Taiwan Central Weather Bureau