Ethiopia: Further protests possible in Addis Ababa through late August over Tigray conflict

Event

Further protests over the Tigray conflict are possible in Addis Ababa through late August, following similar protests there Aug. 8. Thousands of pro-government activists gathered in the capital’s Meskel Square to condemn rebel activity in Tigray and to show support for the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) for their efforts against the rebels. The protest took place two days after the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) took control of Lalibela, in Amhara Region. Overland transportation disruptions were reported amid the largely peaceful protests.

Related demonstrations remain possible over the coming weeks, particularly so if the TPLF makes further gains in the Tigray Region. Any protest will almost certainly prompt a heightened security presence and localized ground transport disruptions. Any further action will likely remain supportive of the government and ENDF, minimizing the threat of violence between security personnel and demonstrators; nonetheless the possibility of violence cannot be ruled out entirely, especially if demonstrators are overly disruptive or ignore orders to disperse.

Context

After succeeding in retaking the regional capital Mekelle in late June, Tigray leaders rebuffed the federal government's subsequent declaration of a unilateral ceasefire. The Tigray Defense Force (TDF) has demanded a full withdrawal of troops from Eritrea and the neighboring Amhara Region as a precondition for a ceasefire.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government has been mobilizing forces to launch a fresh counteroffensive into Tigray - a move that will intensify fighting in the region for at least the mid-term, and possibly increase the potential for further protests in Addis Ababa.

Advice

As a precaution, avoid all demonstrations that may materialize. Heed the instructions of local security personnel. Use alternative routes to avoid rally venues; allow additional time to reach destinations.