Ethiopia: Security situation likely to remain volatile in Tigray region at least through late October /update 1

Event

The security situation in the Tigray region will likely remain volatile through at least late October, amid ongoing hostilities between rebels from the Tigray Defense Force (TDF), formerly known as the Tigray Peoples’ Liberation Front (TPLF), and troops of the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) supported by regional militias.

Since mid-July, hostilities between TDF and ENDF and its allies have intensified on the western, southern, and eastern fronts. Violence has spilled over into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions. TDF’s advancement into areas in Afar is likely due to the strategic importance of transport links through the region that connects Ethiopia with Djibouti. However, the ENDF appears to have regained control of Debre Zebit, Nefas Memucha, Gashena, and Kimer Dingay in Amhara region, while TDF still controls Debre Tabor, South Gondar Zone. Additionally, the ENDF, in support of Eritrean forces, has reportedly repelled TDF’s operations along the western front.

The federal government has been mobilizing forces to launch a fresh counteroffensive into Tigray - a move that will likely intensify fighting in the region. In addition to Amhara militia forces assisting federal troops, Addis Ababa's new push against the TDF is being supported by militias from six regional states - Oromia, Sidama, Somali, Gambella, Harari, and Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples Region (SNNPR). These regions plan to send reinforcements to back military operations in Tigray. Addis Ababa city has also sent troops to support the federal military operation. Moreover, as of mid-August, authorities in Amhara have imposed a night curfew in several cities, including Bahir Dar, Injibara, Kombolcha, Dessie, Debre Birhan. The regional government also issued a fresh call for all students in middle, high school, and university levels and teachers to join the fight against TDF.

Furthermore, the TDF and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), an insurgent group actively involved in military operations against the federal government in Western Oromia and the North Shewa zone, announced Aug. 11 that they had formed a military alliance to overthrow the federal government. Both TPLF and OLA have been declared terrorist organizations by the country’s Parliament.

Local sources have reported profiling and detentions of ethnic-Tigrayans in urban centers outside Tigray, including Addis Ababa. Anti-Western sentiment has also reportedly increased due to the perceived negative influence of European countries and the US in the conflict. Incidents targeting foreign nationals have, however, not been reported.

Further fighting will exacerbate existing concerns in the Tigray Region. Severe damage to infrastructure has led to prolonged utility and communications disruptions; hospitals and other emergency medical providers, including ambulance services, are significantly hampered in their ability to operate. Authorities could implement further security measures, including restrictions on communications, curfews, or bans on public gatherings. Acts of civil unrest or large celebratory gatherings are possible in response to any battlefield successes or setbacks.

Advice

Consider deferring travel to the Tigray Region and surrounding areas impacted by fighting until the situation stabilizes. Avoid all military installations, administrative buildings, and strategic infrastructure that may be targeted for attack, including power stations and media, communications, and transport facilities. Persons in Tigray should liaise with trusted contacts. Avoid all demonstrations, crowds, and concentrations of security personnel. Immediately depart the area if violence occurs or crowds form; take shelter in a secure building. Confirm routes, road access conditions, and destination security before conducting ground movements and when planning freight shipments. If travel is unavoidable, do so in convoy and allow additional time to reach destinations due to potential roadblocks. Obtain satellite phones for emergency use; SMS messages are usually more reliable than calls when cellular networks are restricted. Register and maintain contact with your diplomatic mission.