Iraq: Additional protests likely in Baghdad, other major cities ahead of Oct. 10 parliamentary elections

Event

Additional political protests and rallies are likely to be held in Baghdad and other major Iraqi cities ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled Oct. 10. Notably, around 1,000 people marched in the capital Oct. 1 to commemorate the second anniversary of the start of anti-government protests in Baghdad and southern provinces and to demand justice for protesters killed during the October 2019 demonstrations. Some participating in the Oct. 1 protest in Baghdad also called for a boycott of the upcoming elections due to widespread disillusionment with the current political environment, concerns over corruption and fraud, and perceived impunity following a series of killings targeting activists and civil society groups.

Iraqi security forces will be placed on high alert in preparation for the election from Oct. 2. Airports and border crossings will be closed from 21:00 Oct. 9 until 06:00 Oct. 11 as a precautionary security measure. In addition, trucks weighing over two tons, auto-rickshaws (or tuk-tuks), and motorcycles will be prohibited from transiting through Iraq’s major cities during the election period. Personal vehicles will be allowed to travel to polling locations, but movement between provinces will be restricted.

A heightened security presence and transport disruptions are likely near all protest and campaign rally sites in the coming days. Clashes between demonstrators and security forces cannot be ruled out; scuffles between supporters of rival political parties are also possible. Authorities may attempt to quell protest activity by imposing local curfews and cutting telecommunications in affected areas.

Context

The Oct. 10 parliamentary elections will probably register a low turnout. Establishment parties, many of which are supported by armed militias and patronage networks, are likely to dominate the elections in a low-turnout scenario. This possible result could, in turn, deepen anti-government sentiment, especially if popular grievances (e.g., over perceived corruption, high unemployment, poor provision of public services, perceived criminal impunity, etc.) endure or intensify in the weeks and months following the elections. A renewed spate of protest activity is likely in Baghdad and Iraq's southern provinces under these conditions.

Anti-government protests began in Iraq in October 2019, with activists denouncing high levels of unemployment, perceived corruption, poor provision of public services, and foreign interference. While the demonstrations prompted the resignation of then-Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi and the approval of a new election law aimed at giving politically independent candidates an improved chance of winning seats in parliament, related protests have continued into 2021. Security forces have fired live ammunition and tear gas at protesters, resulting in hundreds of casualties. The 2019-2021 protests are generally considered to be Iraq's most significant bout of civil unrest since the ouster of former President Saddam Hussein in 2003.

Advice

Avoid all protests and rallies as a routine precaution. Heed the advice of security personnel. Leave the area immediately and take refuge in a secure, non-governmental building if violence erupts. Allow additional time to reach destinations near areas affected by protest activity.