Nigeria: Protests possible in Abuja and southeastern states Oct. 21 during high-profile trial /update 2

Event

Protests in support of Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) leader, Nnamdi Kanu, are possible in Abuja and in southeastern states of Abia, Anambra, Imo, Enugu, and Ebonyi, after the Federal High Court of Abuja issued a trial notice for the morning of Oct. 21. Protests and related actions may occur in the vicinity of the court in Abuja, although the IPOB activists have announced no specific plans yet. Related actions cannot be ruled out nationwide, though are most likely in the aforementioned southeastern states.

Authorities will almost certainly deploy additional personnel across the southeast region. Should they occur, protests may affect business and transport operations. Amid the trial in Abuja, officials will likely increase security and prohibit vehicle movement near the court. In the event protests do occur, the potential for clashes with security forces is elevated.

Context

The IPOB seeks the independence of the southeastern region following the previous attempt at independence by the Republic of Biafra which sparked a three-year civil war that ended in 1970. Deep divisions remain between Biafra separatists and the central government. The so-called Biafra region geographically includes various southeastern states, including Abia, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bayelsa, Cross River, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo, Rivers, and is inhabited largely by the Igbo people. The Federal High Court of Abuja labeled the group a terrorist organization in 2017.

The group has been calling for protests and strikes since August to press the government to release Kanu; the actions have resulted in violence and significant business disruptions in the southeast. Protests by supporters of IPOB and Kanu may persist in the southeast in the coming weeks and months depending on the court verdict.

Advice

Avoid all protests due to the potential for clashes. Anticipate business closures and disruptions to transportation and other services. Keep away from any location where security forces appear to be deploying; exit the area at the first sign of any confrontation. Heed the instructions of local authorities.