Iraq: Security forces fire tear gas at demonstrators near Tahrir Square, close to Baghdad's Green Zone Nov. 5

Event

Protests denouncing the results of Iraq's Oct. 10 parliamentary elections are ongoing near Baghdad's Tahrir Square, close to the Green Zone, Nov. 5. Security forces have fired tear gas at demonstrators in an effort to disperse the crowd and prevent them from entering the Green Zone. Unconfirmed social media reports allege security forces have fired live ammunition at demonstrators.

Authorities will almost certainly maintain a heightened security posture near the Green Zone, including around governmental buildings until the situation stabilizes. Localized transport disruptions are likely in the area through at least late Nov. 5. Additional Clashes between demonstrators and security forces are possible over the coming hours.

Context

Turnout was low in Iraq's Oct. 10 parliamentary elections - only about 43 percent of eligible voters cast a ballot, compared to 44.5 percent in the last election in 2018. Prominent Shi'a cleric and nationalist political leader Muqtada al-Sadr's Saairun Alliance won the plurality of the Oct. 10 vote, securing 73 of the parliament's 329 seats. Notably, Iran-backed parties associated with Shi'a militias lost seats, only securing around 20 compared to their 48 seats gained in the 2018 vote. The Fatah Alliance, representing pro-Iran militias, has accordingly vowed to "not accept these fabricated results, whatever the cost," raising the likelihood of post-election unrest and violence, especially if pro-Iran militias are left out of an eventual governing coalition.

Advice

Consider avoiding Tahrir Square, the Green Zone, and the surrounding area through late Nov. 5 due to the potential for clashes. Plan for possible localized transport and business disruptions. If violence occurs nearby, immediately depart the area and seek shelter at a safe nongovernment building. Heed all official security and transport advisories.