New Caledonia: Protests possible territorywide as of Nov. 13 after officials confirm the date for third independence referendum

Event

Pro-independence activists and supporters could hold demonstrations in the coming days after the government reaffirmed a planned third independence referendum would take place as scheduled Dec. 12. Some activists may protest to demand a later date for the referendum. Supporters are most likely to gather at government buildings in Noumea, such as the High Commission of the Republic and Congress of New Caledonia; however, demonstrations are possible at town halls and other locations throughout the territory.

Authorities will increase security near likely protest sites, especially government buildings. Independence leaders have called for supporters to remain calm, but roadblocks cannot be ruled out. Activists may attempt to block main roads into Noumea, including Territory Route 1 (RT1), if opposition to the announcement grows. Officers are likely to break up any significant roadblocks. Protests and security measures will probably cause localized transport and business disruptions. Clashes are possible if police forcibly disperse the protesters.

Context

The vote is the third referendum required under the Noumea Accords and will allegedly settle the territory's status. New Caledonia has twice voted to remain part of France, but the margin fell by roughly three percent in the 2020 vote. Under the accords, the last referendum must occur by October 2022. However, the central government settled on the earlier date due to concerns over upcoming elections in France, which they fear could complicate the referendum vote. Paris also likely wanted to capitalize on New Caledonia's successful handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, a COVID-19 outbreak in the territory - now under control - prompted a fresh wave of opposition to the referendum date.

Independence groups, including the influential National Union for Independence (UNI) and the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS), want the date postponed until the health situation improves and a recently declared mourning period passes. Pro-independence groups threatened not to participate in the vote ahead of the announcement. If not resolved, a poll without the indigenous Kanak population could call the legitimacy of the final referendum into question. Additionally, Paris's decision is likely to engender renewed anger among some pro-independence activists, raising the potential for violent actions and/or clashes.

Advice

Exercise caution near likely protest sites. Seek updated information on protests as organizers may not announce specific plans in advance. Confirm business appointments near rallies. Plan for localized transport disruptions; check road conditions before beginning intercity travel. Allow additional time to reach destinations. If violence occurs nearby, immediately depart the area and seek shelter in a nongovernmental building. Heed all official security and transport advisories.