New Caledonia: Independence referendum to take place Dec. 12 territorywide

Event

New Caledonia will hold a third and final referendum on independence from France Dec. 12. Tensions are high ahead of the vote, as prominent pro-independence groups have called for a poll boycott and are not campaigning. Loyalist groups or activists may still stage some events or rallies against independence in the lead-up to the referendum, though most events will probably remain small due to ongoing COVID-19 gathering limits. Marches and protests could cause localized transport disruptions.

Security forces will likely be on high alert throughout the archipelago amid concerns of potential unrest around the upcoming vote. The central government has deployed police, armed forces, and equipment, and a noticeable security presence is likely in the days surrounding the vote. Clashes between rival groups remain possible in the run-up to, during, and after the vote. Roadblocks and other security disturbances may also occur. However, the most significant threat of unrest is likely in the referendum's aftermath, particularly if voters reject independence, as groups upset with the outcome could engage in violence and vandalism. Pro-independence activists could target French-owned businesses as part of protests. The use of firearms has occurred during periods of heightened tensions in New Caledonia, including Noumea's outskirts. Shootings targeting security personnel and motorists passing pro-independence neighborhoods cannot be ruled out.

Context

Tensions around the referendum have increased in recent months, as Kanak groups had requested that the government postpone the date of the vote so the community could mourn following a spike in COVID-19 cases and deaths. Officials in Paris declined to move the date, citing the need to hold the poll before presidential and legislative elections in France in 2022. Kanak leaders then called for a boycott of the vote and did not register to take part in the campaign period.

Support for independence has grown somewhat during the three-phase referendum process outlined in the 1998 Noumea Accords. The electorate voted to remain part of France during the two previous votes, but the level of support declined from 56.9 percent in 2018 to 53.26 percent in 2020. It is unclear whether the Kanak population will participate in the poll; however, Kanak groups could question the referendum's legitimacy if they do not turn out in sufficient numbers. A vote to remain part of France without full public participation could potentially lead to an increase in violence in the coming months.

Advice

Avoid all demonstrations and roadblocks due to the potential for security disturbances. Check with local, trusted sources for updates on possible unrest, protest locations, and roadblocks, as organizers may not announce actions in advance. Confirm all business appointments and transport reservations in the days ahead of the vote. Carry proper identification at all times and follow the instructions of local authorities.