26 Jan 2022 | 12:48 PM UTC
Iraq: Adverse weather forecast across much of the country through at least Jan. 29
Heavy snowfall, rainfall, and cold temperatures forecast across much of Iraq through at least Jan. 29. Disruptions possible.
Event
Winter storm Elpis, which has caused disruption across parts of Greece and Turkey in recent days, is forecast to impact much of Iraq through at least Jan. 29, bringing heavy rainfall, snowfall, and cold temperatures. Much of northern Iraq has been experiencing a cold wave since mid-January and is forecast to be the most impacted by the weather system. Heavy snowfall is expected in areas of higher elevation around the cities of Mosul, Dohuk, Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, and Kirkuk, with light snow and rainfall in areas of lower elevation. Snowfall may also be witnessd in western regions late. Jan. 26-27. Al Anbar, Salah al Din and Baghdad provinces are expected to receive isolated rainfall, and thunderstorms are forecast in Basra and Maysan provinces in the far south. Much of the country will experience a drop in temperatures Jan. 27-28 and strong winds could cause dust storms in central and southern regions.
Hazardous Conditions
The storm could produce rounds of heavy precipitation (including rain and snow), strong winds, and isolated thunderstorm activity across Iraq. Where precipitation falls as rain, flash and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.
Precipitation could fall as snow in the higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Power outages could occur throughout the country due to the adverse weather.
Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.
The disruptive weather will likely cause some delays and cancellations at regional airports. Flooding/snow could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.
Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding or avalanches, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.
Advice
Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements before traveling in the affected area. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides, as well as mountainous regions where avalanches pose a threat. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.
