Coral Sea: Tropical Depression Nine tracking east-southeastwards in the Coral Sea Feb. 2

Tropical Depression Nine tracking east-southeastwards in the Coral Sea Feb. 2. Close approach to New Caledonia and Vanuatu Feb. 4-5.

Event

Tropical Depression Nine is tracking east-southwards in the Coral Sea Feb. 2. As of 23:00 NCT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 1,361 km (845 miles) west of Port Vila, Vanuatu. Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen as it tracks generally southeastwards, intensifying to a Tropical Low late Feb. 4 as it approaches New Caledonia. The storm system will strengthen further into a Category 1 Tropical Cyclone as it passes between the Loyalty Islands, New Caledonia, and southwestern Vanuatu Feb. 5. Although no direct landfall is forecast, the storm system will likely impact much of New Caledonia and southern Vanuatu Feb. 4-5. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Feb. 2, the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department has issued isolated heavy rainfall and thunderstorm warnings over the northern islands of Vanuatu Feb. 2-3. No warnings have been issued for New Caledonia as yet; however, authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.