Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone Dovi tracking south-southwestwards in the Coral Sea as of early Feb. 10 /update 2

Event

Tropical Cyclone Dovi has strengthened into a category 2 tropical cyclone and is tracking south-southwestwards in the Coral Sea as of early Feb. 10. As of 11:00 NCT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 278 km (173 miles) east-northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia. Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen slightly and make a close approach to the east of Mare Island, Loyalty Islands, New Caledonia, Feb. 10.

The storm system will continue tracking generally southwestwards and make a close approach to the northwest of L'Ile des Pins, New Caledonia, late Feb. 10. Dovi is then forecast to continue to intensify as it turns to track southwards, making a close approach as a category 3 tropical cyclone to the Territory of Norfolk Island, Australia early Feb. 12. The storm system is likely to weaken and turn to track southeastward as it becomes a Subtropical Low and approaches central New Zealand early Feb. 13. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

In New Caledonia, authorities have opened evacuation shelters in Boulouparis, Bourail, Canala, Dumbea, Farino, Houailou, L'Ile des Pins, La Foa, Lifou, Mare, Moindou, and Noumea. Water supply disruptions are occurring in the Auteuil, La Couvelee, Koe, and Koghis sectors.

As of Feb. 10, the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department has issued a tropical cyclone warning for Tafea Province. Gale force winds of 63 kph (39 mph) and gusts of up to 87 kph (54 mph) are forecast in the province. Heavy rainfall could potentially cause flash flooding across parts of the central and southern islands of Vanuatu through Feb. 10 and rough seas are expected across all Vanuatu waters.

Meteo France New Caledonia has issued a level 2 hurricane alert in the Southern Province as well as Lifou and Mare municipalities and Houailou, Kouaoua, and Canala communes. All professional, commercial, and educational activity has ceased and people should shelter at home until the alert level has reduced. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. In New Caledonia, Rai buses are suspended Feb. 10 until further notice, while bus services on the Taneo network are canceled in Greater Noumea Feb. 10. The RT1 is closed between Nekou and La Cigogne, the road between Nessadiou and La Taraudiere is impassable, and the Tene Bridge is closed due to flooding.

Flight disruptions at airports across the affected region and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Air Vanuatu (NF) has canceled domestic and international flights in Vanuatu until further notice, while Air Caledonie (TY) has canceled all flights in New Caledonia Feb. 10 and warned that disruptions could continue into Feb. 11. Officials have canceled the Betico ferry in New Caledonia through at least Feb. 11.

Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance.

Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Meteo France New Caledonia (French)
Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department
Air Vanuatu
Air Caledonie