Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone Dovi tracking southwestwards in the Coral Sea as of late Feb. 10 /update 3

Event

Tropical Cyclone Dovi has strengthened into a category 3 severe tropical cyclone and is tracking southwestwards in the Coral Sea as of late Feb. 10, having made landfall over northwestern L'Ile des Pins, New Caledonia. As of 11:00 NCT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 130 km (81 miles) southeast of Noumea, New Caledonia.

Forecast models indicate the storm system will strengthen as it moves south-southwestwards away from New Caledonia early Feb. 11. Dovi is then forecast to continue to weaken to a category 2 tropical cyclone as it turns to track southwards, making a close approach to the Territory of Norfolk Island, Australia, early Feb. 12. The storm system will continue to weaken and turn to track southeastwards as it becomes a Subtropical Low and approaches central New Zealand Feb. 12-13. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

In New Caledonia, authorities have opened evacuation shelters in Boulouparis, Bourail, Canala, Dumbea, Farino, Houailou, L'Ile des Pins, La Foa, Lifou, Mare, Moindou, and Noumea. Water supply disruptions are occurring in the Auteuil, La Couvelee, Koe, and Koghis sectors.

Meteo France New Caledonia has issued a level 2 hurricane alert in the Southern Province and Lifou and Mare municipalities and Houailou, Kouaoua, and Canala communes. All professional, commercial, and educational activity has ceased and people should shelter at home until the alert level has reduced. Areas under level 2 alert status are due to move to a backup cyclone alert status from 06:00 NCT Feb. 11 as the storm system moves away from the territory.

Vanuatu's Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department has ended all cyclone warnings but is maintaining a strong wind warning for central and southern waters through Feb. 11.

New Zealand's MetService has issued orange heavy rain warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) for Taranaki; Tasman west of Motueka; Horowhenua and Kapiti; Marlborough Sounds; Tararua Range; and Wellington and Wairarapa excluding the Tararua District. Yellow heavy rain watches have been issued for Tararua District; Ranges of Buller and Nelson Lakes; Marlborough excluding the Sounds; and Waitomo, Taumarunui, southern parts of Taupo, Taihape, Whanganui and Manawatu. Yellow strong wind watches have been issued for Northland and Auckland, including Great Barrier Island; Wellington and the Marlborough Sounds; and Tasman and Buller.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. In New Caledonia, Rai buses are suspended Feb. 10 until further notice, while bus services on the Taneo network were canceled in Greater Noumea Feb. 10. The RT1 is closed between Nekou and La Cigogne and at the exit to Bourail, the road between Nessadiou and La Taraudiere is impassable, and the Tene Bridge is closed due to flooding.

Flight disruptions at airports across the affected region and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Air Vanuatu (NF) has canceled domestic and international flights in Vanuatu until further notice, while Air Caledonie (TY) has canceled all flights in New Caledonia Feb. 10 and warned that disruptions could continue into Feb. 11. Officials have canceled the Betico ferry in New Caledonia through at least Feb. 11.

Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance.

Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.