Central Europe: Storms forecast to bring further adverse weather across northern parts of Central Europe through at least Feb. 21 /update 3

Event

A second storm is forecast to bring adverse weather across northern parts of Central Europe through at least Feb. 21, which will hamper recovery efforts following a storm that impacted the area causing widespread disruptions Feb. 16-17. The first storm system, named Dudley in the UK and Ireland and Ylenia in Germany, has left thousands without power and caused transport disruptions and casualties in parts of Germany and Poland. A second storm, named Eunice in the UK and Ireland and Zeynep in Germany, is impacting the UK early Feb. 18 and will likely impact parts of southern Denmark, northern Germany, and northern Poland late Feb. 18-20. The primary hazard from the storm is likely to be strong winds, especially in mountainous and coastal regions. The storms will also bring isolated thunderstorm activity and heavy precipitation, including snow over higher ground.

Hundreds of thousands of people across Poland lost power following the first storm and three fatalities were reported. Two of the fatalities occurred when a crane toppled over in Krakow, an incident that injured four others. The other fatality occurred in Miedzyrzecz in western Poland when a tree fell on a vehicle. Around 50 homes across Poland were damaged by the storms.

In Germany, three people were killed in weather-related accidents in Lower Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt states. Tens of thousands of people across hundreds of towns cities have lost power, including around 50,000 in North Rhine-Westphalia State. National rail operator Deutsche Bahn (DB) canceled several long-distance rail services Feb. 17, mostly in northern states. Although some services resumed early Feb. 18, DB has stated that further disruptions are expected through at least Feb. 19. Berlin's fire brigade declared a state of emergency early Feb. 17 due to a surge in demand for their services. Flooding has been reported in Schleswig-Holstein State due to storm surge and there is a risk of further storm surges on the North Sea coast due to the second storm.

As of Feb. 18, the respective meteorological services for the affected countries have issued the following weather warnings:

Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI):

Orange wind warnings (the second highest level on a four-tier scale): across far southern Denmark.
Orange storm surge warning: on the Wadden coast in southwest Denmark.
Yellow wind warnings: across the rest of southern Denmark.
Yellow storm surge warning: on much of the western coast.
Blue risk message (a level below a warning for people to pay attention to developing weather): across much of central Denmark.

The German Weather Service (DWD):

Purple wind warning (the highest level on a four-tier scale): across northwestern coastal areas in Bremen and Schleswig-Holstein states.
Red wind warnings: across northern Germany and parts of central Germany.
Orange wind warnings: across central Germany and parts of southern Germany.
Yellow wind warnings: across the rest of southern Germany.
Yellow cold temperature and first warnings: for parts of central, eastern, southeastern, and southwestern Germany.
Yellow snow warnings: for far southern Bavaria State.

The Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW-PIB):

Red strong wind warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale): across northwestern and north-central Poland.
Orange strong wind warnings: across the rest of Poland.

Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days.

Hazardous Conditions
The storms could produce rounds of heavy precipitation (including rain and snow), strong winds, and isolated thunderstorm activity. Where precipitation falls as rain, flash and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Precipitation could fall as snow in the higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Power outages could occur throughout affected areas.

Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.

The disruptive weather could cause some delays and cancellations at airports across the affected countries. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations along the North Sea and Baltic coasts if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding/snow could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding or avalanches, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements before traveling in the affected area. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides, as well as mountainous regions where avalanches pose a threat. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.