Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone Gombe tracking westward into Mozambique Channel as of early March 9 /update 2

Event

Tropical Cyclone Gombe is tracking westward into the Mozambique Channel as of early March 9 after moving across northern Madagascar March 8. As of 21:00 EAT March 8, the storm's center of circulation was located in Madagascar's Sofia Region, approximately 422 km (262 miles) north of Antananarivo. The system has progressively weakened into a zone of disturbed weather since making landfall north of Cap Masoala in Sava Region early March 8.

Forecast models indicate the system will intensify into a tropical cyclone as it tracks west-southwestward over the Mozambique Channel over the coming days. The system is forecast to make landfall in Mozambique's Nampula Province as a tropical cyclone or severe tropical storm March 11. Gombe is subsequently forecast to weaken as it tracks west-southwestward over Nampula Province March 12 before ultimately dissipating over Zambezia Province March 13. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

Madagascar is still recovering from the passage of a series of tropical cyclones in the past few weeks, resulting in hundreds of deaths and much damage across the country. Additional rainfall and strong winds are likely to hamper recovery efforts.

Government Advisories
The Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology has lifted all cyclone alerts as of March 9; however, a blue post-cyclone vigilance advisory was issued for northeastern parts of Madagascar as of 22:00 EAT March 8.

The Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) had not issued any color-coded alerts or warnings in connection with the system as of March 8. However, INAM issued a tropical cyclone monitoring statement March 8 warning that Gombe would approach the Mozambican coast March 11, bringing heavy rains, severe thunderstorms, and strong gusts to parts of Cabo Delgado, Nampula, and Zambezia provinces.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and places with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm or tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge.

Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology (French)
Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) (Portuguese)