Mozambique: Tropical Cyclone Gombe tracks westward in Mozambique Channel late March 10 /update 5

Event

Tropical Cyclone Gombe was moving westward in the Mozambique Channel late March 10 after tracking over northern Madagascar March 8. As of 23:00 CAT March 10, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 711 km (442 miles) north of Europa Island. Forecast models indicate the system will make landfall as a tropical cyclone in Mozambique's Nampula Province early March 11. The system is subsequently forecast to weaken rapidly into a zone of disturbed weather as it continues to track westward across Nampula Province and into Zambezia Province March 11-12. Gombe will turn southwestward and then south-southeastward in Zambezia Province March 13 before reemerging in the Mozambique Channel by early March 14. The system will subsequently strengthen as it travels southeastward in the Mozambique Channel, intensifying into a Moderate Tropical Storm by late March 15. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

Initial assessments by Madagascar's National Office for Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC) indicate two fatalities and one missing person following the passage of Gombe over northern regions of the country. The storm affected at least 935 people across Analanjirofo, Sava, and Sofia regions, including 321 displaced people in Maroantsetra District, Analanjirofo Region, and an unconfirmed number of people in Antalaha District, Sava Region.

Government Advisories
The Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) has issued red tropical cyclone warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale) for Nampula and Zambezia provinces. More than 20 cm (8 inches) of rainfall is forecast to fall within 24 hours across some affected areas, and gusts of up to 160 kph (100 mph) are possible. Locally heavy downpours are also possible in parts of Cabo Delgado, Niassa, and Tete provinces.

While Malawi's Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS) has issued an initial bulletin regarding the approach of Gombe, no weather warnings or advisories are in effect as of early March 11.

Madagascar's General Directorate of Meteorology has lifted all cyclone warnings as of March 11.

Meteo France Mayotte is maintaining yellow heavy rainfall and thunderstorm warnings (the lowest level on a three-tier scale) across the territory due to the passing of the storm system to the southwest.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and places with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm or tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge.

Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology (French)
Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) (Portuguese)
Malawi Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS)
Meteo France Mayotte (French)