Israel, PT: Tensions likely to rise in East Jerusalem and West Bank ahead of and during confluence of religious observances in April /update 3

Event

Israeli-Palestinian tensions are likely to escalate over the coming weeks and remain at an elevated level through at least late April ahead of and during a confluence of religious observances in Israel and the Palestinian Territories. The Muslim month of Ramadan starts April 2, while the weeklong Jewish period of Passover begins April 15. Further complicating the security situation is the celebration of Easter among Catholic and Protestant Christians April 17, as well as Orthodox Easter April 24.

Israeli officials have asserted that there is no specific intelligence that indicates that a violent escalation of prevailing tensions in Jerusalem or the West Bank will take place amid the impending coincidence of religious observances. However, clashes between Palestinians and Israeli security forces and settlers are likely and armed attacks remain possible in flashpoint areas, including religious sites in East Jerusalem and the West Bank as well as other locations where Jewish and Muslim communities are likely to interact or otherwise be in close proximity.

Israeli police and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency, the country's internal security service) have reportedly increased their presence in Jerusalem and the West Bank ahead of April's religious observances. Israeli security forces will also likely heighten security measures in other parts of Israel in the wake of the deadly March 22 attack carried out by an Islamic State (IS) sympathizer in Be'er Sheva.

Localized transport, movement, and business disruptions will probably affect parts of East Jerusalem and the West Bank ahead of and during the upcoming religious observances. Demonstrations remain possible in areas subject to escalating tensions.

Context

Drivers of increasing Israeli-Palestinian tensions include perceptions around Israeli treatment of Palestinian prisoners, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operations in Palestinian settlements, Israeli demolitions of Palestinian structures, Palestinian/Arab-Israeli armed attacks, and Israeli security measures in East Jerusalem, among others. In turn, rising tensions will likely result in clashes ahead of or during Ramadan and may prompt an increase in armed Palestinian attacks against Israeli individuals and interests, or even a resumption of violence across the Israel-Gaza border.

Palestinian militant groups, including Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), have notably called on Palestinians to increase "resistance" against Israel over the coming days and weeks, particularly in Jerusalem and the West Bank.

Multiple stabbing attacks have been reported in Israel in recent days. An Arab-Israeli citizen and IS sympathizer killed four people in Be'er Sheva March 22, and two other stabbing attacks collectively wounded three people in Jerusalem March 19-20.

Advice

Exercise caution while operating in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Avoid all demonstrations. Seek updated information on security conditions and possible movement restrictions in the West Bank and East Jerusalem before traveling. Heed the advice of local authorities. Avoid loitering near security checkpoints and main entrances to hotels, restaurants, or government buildings. Do not attempt to bypass security checkpoints without authorities' permission.