Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone Fili tracking southeastward late April 5; close approach to New Caledonia forecast April 6-7 /update 1

Event

Tropical Cyclone Fili has strengthened into a Category 1 tropical cyclone and is tracking southeastward in the Coral Sea as of late April 5. As of 17:00 NCT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 670 km (416 miles) northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. Forecast models indicate the system will continue to strengthen slightly into a Category 2 tropical cyclone as it tracks south-southeastward April 6-7, making a close approach to the west of New Caledonia. Fili will pass closest to northern parts of New Caledonia late April 6-early April 7 but is not forecast to make direct landfall over the territory. The storm system is then forecast to weaken slightly as it tracks away from New Caledonia before becoming a subtropical low pressure system as it approaches the Tasman Sea late April 8. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

Disruptions have already begun to be reported across parts of northern New Caledonia as of late April 5 due to the impact of the storm system. At least two roads in the Koumac area have been made impassable by floodwaters. Passenger and freight ferry services between Grande Terre and Belep islands have been suspended April 5-7 and some bus services across the island have also been canceled. Emergency shelters have been established in Belep, Kone, and Thio and several cultural events scheduled for April 6 have been canceled.

Government Advisories
As of April 5, Meteo France Nouvelle Caledonie has issued a cyclone alert level 1 for Belep, and it is expected to move to cyclone alert level 2 at 21:00 NCT April 5. Kaala-Gomen, Koumac, Pouebo, Poum, and Ouegoa municipalities in North Province are expected to go to alert level 1 at 23:00 April 5 and to alert level 2 at 09:00 April 6. The rest of the territory is under cyclone pre-alert status. Under alert level 2 all professional, educational, and commercial activity is suspended. Heavy rainfall is already occurring in northern regions and is forecast to increase along the north and east coasts April 6-7. Strong winds with gusts of up to 100 kph (62 mph) are expected in Belep and northern Grande Terre Island.

The Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department has stated that Fili does not pose a significant threat to the islands; however, isolated heavy rainfall is expected in northern, central, and southern islands and a severe weather warning has been issued for heavy rainfall and possible flooding in northern and central islands April 5-6.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Hazardous Conditions
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

Transport
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at airports in the region, including La Tontouta International Airport (NOU) in Noumea, and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever and cholera. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm or typhoon conditions. Heed all evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and any necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Meteo France Nouvelle Caledonie (French)
Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department