Philippines: TD 03W tracking west-northwestwards in the Philippine Sea as of early April 10; close approach to Eastern Samar Province through April 11 /update 1

Event

Tropical Depression 03W (known in the Philippines as Agaton) is tracking west-northwestwards in the Philippine Sea, off the coast of Eastern Samar Province, early April 10. As of 05:00 PHT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 700 km (435 miles) southeast of Manila. Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen into a tropical storm as it tracks generally northwest towards the eastern coast of Eastern Samar Province through the afternoon of April 10. The storm is forecast to remain just off the coast of the province as it gradually turns to track east through early April 12 without making landfall. The system is likely to maintain its strength as it turns to track northeastward, away from the Philippines through early April 14. The storm's track and intensity forecast remain somewhat uncertain, and the system may change accordingly over the coming days.

Government Advisories
Philippine officials continue to warn of heavy to intense rains over the Eastern Visayas Region as well as Dinagat Islands Province and moderate to heavy rains in Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, Bohol, and northern and central Cebu provinces, including Bantayan and Camotes Islands, April 10. Light to moderate rain is forecast over the rest of Visayas, Northern Mindanao, and Caraga regions, as well as Masbate and Sorsogon provinces over the same period. Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) 2 is in effect for northern Dinagat Islands, southern Eastern Samar, and far southern Samar provinces. TCWS 1 is in place for Biliran, the rest of Dinagat Islands, Leyte, Southern Leyte, the rest of Eastern Samar and Samar, Northern Samar, Surigao del Norte provinces as well as Camotes Islands.

Additionally, severe (second-lowest level on a four-tier scale) general flood advisories are in place for the Bicol Region, Caraga Region, Central Visayas, Eastern Visayas, and Western Visayas regions. Moderate general flood advisories are in effect over Mimaropa, Northern Mindanao, and Zamboanga Peninsula regions. Authorities may issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards.

Authorities have preemptively evacuated a neighborhood in Barangay Mabolo in Cebu City, Central Visayas Region. More than 6,000 families have been evacuated in the Caraga Region and Northern Mindanao due to heavy rain and flooding since April 7. The possibility of additional localized evacuations cannot be discounted if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous. Authorities declared a state of calamity for Davao de Oro Province and the Municipality of Cateel in Davao Oriental Province April 8 due to heavy rain and flooding. At least one person died in floodwaters in Davao de Oro Province April 6.

Hazardous Conditions
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at airports in the region, such as Francisco Bangoy International Airport (DVO), Daniel Z. Romualdez Airport (TAC), and Laguindingan Airport (CGY), and temporary closures of ports are also possible.

Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration