Ukraine: Russia continues offensive in east of country as of May 1 /update 86

Event

Russia's offensive against Ukraine continued May 1, with Russian troops launching attacks in several areas and clashing with Ukrainian forces in the regions of Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Luhansk. Russian forces have reportedly made territorial gains in the Donetsk Region in recent days, while Ukrainian forces have continued to conduct counteroffensives to the north of Kharkiv city.

In the Kharkiv Region, armed clashes have recently been reported both to the southeast and southwest of Izyum as Russian forces have continued their attempts to advance on Slovyansk and Barvinkove, respectively. The heaviest fighting has been reported in the vicinity of Dovhenke, between Izyum and Slovyansk, and Russian forces have reportedly surrounded Ukrainian troops at Yaremivka. Ukrainian counteroffensives to the northeast of Kharkiv city have begun to exert pressure on Russian artillery forces positioned in the area, forcing a significant reduction in Russian shelling of the city from that direction in recent days.

In the Donetsk Region, shelling and clashes have been reported near Lyman and Yampil amid unconfirmed reports that Russian troops have seized control of the latter. Russian forces have heavily shelled many towns in the region in recent days, including Avdiivka. Russian troops have also unsuccessfully attempted to stage assaults on Novomykhailivka, failing to take control of the town as of yet. In Mariupol, shelling reportedly resumed at the Azovstal Steel Plant late May 1 after a ceasefire allowed some 100 people to evacuate the facility; it is unclear if the reported resumption of fighting will impede further evacuations of civilians from the plant over the coming hours and days. Separatist officials in the Donetsk Region have asserted that they will postpone the planned May 9 Victory Day celebrations until they control the entire region.

In the Luhansk Region, Russian forces have reportedly continued to stage attacks on Popasna and Rubizhne without making significant territorial gains.

In the Zaporizhzhia Region, Russian troops have concentrated near Polohy in recent days, conducting limited attacks on towns to the north. They have notably continued to shell Orikhiv and Huliaipole; Zelene Pole, located in Donetsk Region on the Zaporizhzhia administrative border, has also recently been subjected to Russian shelling.

In the Kherson Region, Russian forces have reportedly shelled Oleksandrivka and have continued to shell locations near the administrative border with Dnipropetrovsk Region; the attacks may presage a future assault in the direction of Kryvyi Rih. A near-complete internet blackout was reported in Kherson Region April 30; while regional service providers had partially restored access May 1, network connectivity has reportedly been rerouted through Russian internet infrastructure. Additionally, Russian occupying forces reportedly began to transition parts of the Kherson Region under their control to the use of rubles May 1. Officials have indicated that the transition period will take up to four months.

In the Odesa Region, Russian authorities claimed May 1 that its forces had conducted a missile strike on a military airfield near Odesa city, destroying a runway as well as a hangar containing arms and ammunition provided by Western countries. It was not immediately clear if the Russian claim referred to the same attack that damaged the runway at Odesa International Airport (ODS) April 30, rendering it inoperable. The airspace around Odesa is closed, and further Russian strikes are likely to target the region's infrastructure over the short term.

A recent series of explosions in the separatist region of Transnistria since April 25 has raised concerns that Russia may be seeking to destabilize the region to provide a pretext for a Russian intervention that could ultimately be used to open a new front in southwestern Ukraine. While this remains unlikely in the near future, Russia did damage a bridge near the town of Zatoka, west of Odesa, in missile strikes April 26; the destruction of this bridge would severely hamper Ukrainian forces' ability to reinforce the Budjak area, directly south of Moldova.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) continues to operate evacuation trains from Kyiv and other areas, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Trostyanets station is closed, and Slovyansk station is operating only partial services. Intercity and regional rail services are available intermittently; rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Damage to rail infrastructure at Kramatorsk will disrupt evacuation services from this area. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government in Kyiv has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree until May 25. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions during various time frames. Authorities in Odesa have announced an extended curfew effective 22:00 May 1-05:00 May 3. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in place 22:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in effect 21:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia, the curfew ordinarily runs 21:00-05:00; however, the curfew is in effect 17:00 May 1-05:00 May 2. In Sumy Region, the curfew is also in place 21:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice, depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Despite increased Russian bombardments and ground assaults in the Donbas, Russian progress has been slow in recent days. Some units withdrawn from northern Ukraine are confirmed to have entered combat zones in the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. However, given that these redeployed forces reportedly suffered losses of men and equipment during offensives in northern Ukraine, it is uncertain whether their piecemeal introduction in the country's east will result in rapid territorial gains.

In the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, Ukrainian forces are reportedly well prepared and offering stiff resistance to Russian advances. Nonetheless, Russia has yet to commit all of the forces it currently has deployed within Ukraine, though such a move appears imminent. Russia may attempt to individually encircle fortified towns in the Donbas and/or attempt to cut off major groups of Ukrainian forces from western supply lines. Russian forces are yet to display the high-level capability to successfully conduct complex, theater-level maneuvers, though they are believed to possess this ability; the recent deployment of General Gerasimov to Izyum could be the start of attempts to achieve this.

Recent explosions in the separatist region of Transnistria in Moldova, which is home to approximately 1,500 Russian troops, are likely designed to divert Ukrainian attention away from the Donbas to a potential threat in the country's southwest. Similar incidents are likely to continue in the coming weeks to maintain this threat. However, the small number of Russian troops in Transnistria, coupled with their relative isolation and the logistical difficulty Russia would face in reinforcing or supplying them, suggest that no major threat is likely to materialize from this direction in the short term.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
Listing of Available Trains by City (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)