Turkey, Iraq: Increased security likely through late May amid cross-border military offensive /update 1

Event

Extremely tight security is likely and spates of civil unrest, localized supply chain disruptions, and retaliatory attacks are possible in Turkey's southeastern provinces through at least May amid the nation's ongoing military offensive in northern Iraq. Dubbed "Operation Claw Lock," the action began April 17 with air and artillery strikes targeting areas held by Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) fighters in the Metina, Zap, and Avasin-Basyan regions. Turkish authorities have stated that they launched the operation to preempt a large-scale attack by the PKK.

Retaliatory Attacks
As Operation Claw Lock progresses, PKK militants in Iraq could launch retaliatory mortar and rocket strikes against border towns in Turkey, especially those where Turkish troops are staging. However, any such attacks will likely be sporadic rather than sustained and probably largely restricted to the immediate border area. Cross-border artillery fire is unlikely to pose a significant threat to southeastern population centers.

Turkish military operations could also motivate Kurdish militant groups within Turkey - mainly the PKK and its offshoot, the Kurdistan Freedom Hawks (TAK) - to conduct bombings and other attacks in retaliation. However, the PKK's and TAK's abilities to operate in Turkey have been significantly degraded by an ongoing large-scale anti-terror operation in the Kurdish southeast, as well as by the heightened security posture of government military units supporting operations in Syria. Turkish provinces with the highest potential for PKK/TAK activity include Bingol, Diyarbakir, Hakkari, Sanliurfa, Siirt, Sirnak, and Tunceli.

Civil Unrest
Political, student, and civil society groups opposed to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's administration may stage anti-war protests in various cities across Turkey. Although any such demonstrations will most likely occur in the country's predominantly Kurdish southeast, similar rallies cannot be ruled out in major cities in the center and west of the country, such as Ankara, Istanbul, and Izmir.

Given the apparent degree of popular support the military offensive is receiving, any anti-war demonstrations that may materialize are unlikely to be large or widespread. Nevertheless, security forces will almost certainly deploy to monitor and manage any such gatherings. Clashes between demonstrators and security forces are possible at related protests; Turkish police have a history of forcibly dispersing even small anti-government demonstrations. Pro-government counterdemonstrations are also possible, which could prompt low-level confrontations where rival activists come into contact.

Transport and Supply Chain Disruptions
Road closures associated with troop movements or other provisional security restrictions imposed as part of Operation Claw Lock could prompt localized transport and supply chain disruptions over the coming weeks. Authorities may declare special security zones - areas to which access is restricted or completely denied - with little-to-no warning, based on operational necessity.

Advice

If operating in southeastern Turkey, exercise extreme caution until any potential backlash to Operation Claw Lock becomes clear. Strictly keep away from areas near the Turkish-Iraqi border. Avoid all military installations, troop convoys, and concentrations of security forces as these may be targeted for attack by PKK militants. Heed the instructions of local authorities, especially with regard to any special security zones that may be declared during the operation. Plan accordingly for potential transportation delays and supply chain disruptions in southeastern Turkey. Avoid any protests that may materialize in any part of the country.