Sudan, Ethiopia: Authorities likely to increase security in Al-Fashqa Triangle along Ethiopia border following clashes June 26

Event

Sudanese authorities will likely maintain an elevated security posture in the Al-Fashqa triangle area along the Ethiopian border in Al-Qadarif State through at least late July following clashes June 26. Ethiopian soldiers reportedly killed seven Sudanese Army Forces (SAF) personnel and one civilian in the Al-Fashqa triangle, which is disputed between the two countries. Ethiopian officials have blamed the incident on Amhara militias located near the disputed area.

An increased security posture is likely in the border area in the Al-Fashqa triangle in the coming weeks. Further clashes between Sudanese and Ethiopian forces are possible. Authorities in both countries may implement travel restrictions in the area should the security situation significantly deteriorate.

Context

Ethiopian forces had controlled the disputed Al-Fashqa area for more than 30 years until December 2020, when Sudanese armed forces advanced into the area after Ethiopian troops withdrew to deal with internal conflict in the Tigray region. Both countries have since increased their military presence and security posture along the shared border. Since late 2020, a series of violent incidents and clashes has taken place along the border resulting in at least a dozen fatalities by both countries. The border tensions have prompted talks on redrawing the territory between the two countries, though these have so far failed to reach an agreement after Ethiopia demanded that Sudanese forces withdraw.

Advice

Consider avoiding nonessential travel to the Al-Fashqa area until the situation stabilizes. If operating in the area, exercise extreme caution; carry proper identification at all times, and heed the instructions of local security personnel. Consider alternative methods for routing shipments in the vicinity of the conflict zone. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.