27 Jul 2022 | 11:16 PM UTC
Ethiopia: Increased security and additional armed confrontations likely into early August following recent Al-Shabaab attacks into Somali region
Heightened security, further clashes likely along Ethiopia-Somalia border into at least early August following recent Al-Shabaab incursions.
Event
Authorities in Ethiopia will likely maintain a very tight security posture along the country’s frontier with Somalia in response to a recent spate of cross-border attacks by Al-Shabaab militants. The series of clashes first began with Al-Shabaab diversionary assaults on Yeed and Aato - a move intended to distract Ethiopia's Liyu police unit, which partially protects the two villages despite their being located Somalia's Bakool region. Meanwhile, a second prong of militants crossed into the Afder Zone of Ethiopia's Somali Region largely unopposed. There are conflicting reports of casualties incurred during the fighting, with Ethiopian government forces claiming to have killed over 200 Al-Shabaab fighters during operations conducted to push the militants out between July 20-25.
Further attacks are likely over the coming weeks. Ethiopia's federal government will almost certainly deploy additional security forces along the border with Somalia to prevent further incursions. Related security measures may include curfews, additional checkpoints, and other movement restrictions in the Somali Region.
Context
Al-Shabaab has made threats against Ethiopia in recent years in response to the country’s large military deployment in Somalia as part of the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). However, the reach of the insurgent groups is limited, and its attempts to recruit Ethiopian members, including through the dissemination of propaganda videos in Amharic language, have reportedly met with little success. Moreover, Ethiopian security forces have dismantled several suspected cells linked to Al-Shabaab and Islamic State (IS) in the country since 2015, including some groups that have reportedly planned attacks.
Advice
Consider avoiding nonessential travel to the affected areas until the situation stabilizes. If operating in the area, exercise extreme caution; carry proper identification at all times, and heed the instructions of local security personnel. Consider alternative methods for routing shipments in the vicinity of the conflict zone. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.
