11 Aug 2022 | 10:25 AM UTC
Pacific Ocean: Tropical Depression Nine forms Aug. 11, forecast to track toward eastern Japan
TD Nine forms and tracking westward in the western Pacific Ocean Aug. 11; landfall forecast over the Izu Peninsula, Japan, Aug. 13.
Event
Tropical Depression Nine has formed and is tracking westward in the western Pacific Ocean Aug. 11. As of 15;00 JST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 809 km (503 miles) south-southwest of Yokosuka, Kanagawa Prefecture.
Forecast models indicate that the storm system will turn to track northeastward and then north-northeastward as it strengthens into a tropical storm Aug. 11-12. The storm is then expected to turn to track in a more northeastward direction and strengthen into a severe tropical storm before making landfall over the Izu Peninsula in Chubu Region Aug. 13. The system is forecast to maintain tropical storm strength as it continues to track northeastward over Kanto Region, tracking close to Tokyo, late Aug. 13-early Aug. 14. The storm is expected to reemerge into the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Ibaraki Prefecture Aug. 14 and weaken into a subtropical low pressure system as it tracks northeastward off the east coast of northern Japan Aug. 14-15. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.
The Japan Meteorological Agency has warned that the system could bring rough seas, strong winds, heavy rainfall, flooding, and landslides to the Pacific side of eastern Japan in the coming days. Rough seas are likely to impact coastal regions from Aug. 12 and heavy rainfall is likely over affected regions from Aug. 13. As of late Aug. 11, the agency has not issued any specific warnings regarding the storm; however, officials are likely to issue weather warnings as the storm approaches and could order evacuations in areas most at risk from the impact of the storm.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
