Iran: Anti-government protests likely in cities nationwide through at least late September

Event

Anti-government demonstrations remain likely across Iran through at least late September in response to the death of a 22-year-old woman in police custody Sept. 15. The victim - Mahsa Amini - was detained by Iran's morality police for allegedly violating the country's dress code and hijab rules. Actions by activists will probably grow in scale and intensity unless authorities hold to account the individuals responsible for Amini's death. Security forces will almost certainly deploy to respond to any protest activity in Tehran and other major cities. Authorities slowed down the internet in Tehran following demonstrations Sept. 16. Officials could shut down internet service in some areas of the country that may experience demonstrations to prevent activists from mobilizing.

Protests over Amini's death could spread over the coming days to other cities and provinces across Iran, such as Abadan, Ardebil, Bandar Abbas, Birjand, Gachsaran, Khorramshahr, Mahshahr, Shiraz, Tabriz, and Sanandaj. Prominent rally sites may include major public squares, city centers, and near government buildings. Transport disruptions are likely near any demonstrations that may materialize. Civil society associations, labor organizations, and political groups could potentially enhance the impact of protests by staging labor strikes. Counterprotests and clashes could occur between demonstrators and security forces or rival activist groups.

Authorities will likely maintain a heightened security posture in major cities until it becomes clear whether the protests will spread. Security forces may respond forcefully, including using tear gas, water cannon, and baton charges, to any instances of civil unrest, especially if participants are overly disruptive or fail to heed orders to disperse.

Advice

Avoid all large gatherings and areas where security forces have deployed. Plan for ground transport disruptions and allow extra time to reach destinations in major cities, especially near likely protest locations such as public squares and government buildings. Heed the instructions of security personnel. If violence breaks out nearby, leave the area immediately and seek shelter in a secure, non-government building.