23 Sep 2022 | 02:38 PM UTC
Japan: Tropical Depression Talas tracking north-northeastward over the Philippine Sea as of late Sept. 23 /update 2
TD Talas tracking north-northeastward over the Philippine Sea as of late Sept. 23. Landfall over Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan, early Sept. 24.
Event
Tropical Depression Talas is tracking north-northeastward over the Philippine Sea late Sept. 23, just to the south of Wakayama Prefecture, Japan. As of 21:00 JST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 369 km (229 miles) southwest of Camp Fuji, Shizuoka Prefecture.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will continue to weaken as it tracks northeastward late Sept. 23-early Sept. 24 and make landfall over Shizuoka Prefecture early Sept. 24. Talas will remain a weak depression as it tracks northeastward across southern Chubu and southern Kanto regions and exits into the North Pacific Ocean from Ibaraki Prefecture late Sept. 24. The system is forecast to dissipate early Sept. 25 east of Fukushima Prefecture. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming hours.
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has warned that the tropical system will interact with a weather front moving over the country from the Sea of Japan and bring thunderstorms from western to the Pacific side of eastern Japan through Sept. 25. Forecast models indicate rainfall accumulations through late Sept. 24 of 25 cm (10 inches) over Tokai Region; 18 cm (7 inches) in Kanto-Koshin Region; 15 cm (6 inches) in Hokuriku region; and 10 cm (4 inches) in Kinki Region Strong wind gusts, lightning, and tornadoes are possible in affected areas. Heavy rainfall could result in landslides and flooding over low-lying areas and sites near water bodies. Strong winds and rough seas are forecast on the Pacific side of western Japan and eastern Japan through Sept. 25.
As of early Sept. 23, the JMA has issued purple (the highest level on a three-tier scale) heavy rain and landslide warnings over parts of Shizuoka and Aichi prefectures in Tokai Region and red heavy rainfall, landslide, and flood warnings over parts of Aichi, Gifu and Shizuoka prefectures in Tokai Region and Chiba, Ibaraki, Kanagawa, Nagano, and Yamanashi prefectures in Kanto Koshin Region. Yellow heavy rainfall, landslide, flood, thunderstorm, high wave, strong wind, and storm surge advisories are in place across much of central and northern Japan. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories in the coming days dependent on the development of the storm.
As of late Sept. 23, authorities in Shizuoka Prefecture have issued evacuation orders for over 500,000 people in Hamamatsu City, around 88,000 people in Fukuroi City, and tens of thousands of others in parts of Shizuoka City, Kosai City, Yoshida Town, Kikugawa City, Makinohara City, Kakegawa, and Omaezaki City due to the risk of flooding and landslides. Several rivers across Shizuoka Prefecture are at dangerously high levels and some have reportedly burst their banks, including the Aburayama River. Authorities in Aichi Prefecture have issued evacuation orders for over 60,000 people in Tahara Town and around 30,000 people in Kota Town due to the risk of landslides. Trains have been suspended on lines between Kakegawa Station in Shizuoka Prefecture and Mikawa Anjo Station in Aichi Prefecture and between Shizuoka Station in Shizuoka Prefecture to Toyohashi Station in Aichi PrefectureSept. 23.
Most of Japan is still recovering from the passage of Typhoon Nanmadol, which made landfall near Kagoshima City, Kagoshima Prefecture, late Sept. 18, and Yanagawa City, Fukuoka Prefecture, early Sept. 19. The system tracked across western Japan into the Tohoku region through early Sept. 20. Talas is likely to bring heavy rainfall to most of Japan, hampering recovery efforts and exacerbating the current situation. The soils are likely already saturated from Typhoon Nanmadol; additional rainfall will probably result in landslides over steep terrain and flooding in low-lying areas and near water bodies, especially those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
