Nigeria: Political gatherings likely ahead of presidential election Feb. 25

Event

Political gatherings and related activities are likely nationwide ahead of the presidential election slated for Feb. 25. The electoral campaign will officially run Sept. 28-Feb. 23. Likely gathering locations include main urban centers, notably near political party headquarters, Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) offices, and government budlings.

In the run-up to and during the election, a heightened security presence is likely in the vicinity of large-scale electoral-related events and polling stations; up to 30,000 soldiers will be deployed on voting day. Disruptions to transport and businesses, and other services are likely on polling day.

Clashes between supporters of rival political groups remain possible before, during, and after the vote, particularly in urban areas. Other forms of election-related violence are possible, including targeted assassinations and abductions, as witnessed during previous election periods. Officials may impose restrictive measures such as temporary curfews to prevent or in the event of significant unrest. Militant and criminal attacks targeting election-related events are also possible ahead of and during the vote.

Context

Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has completed his two constitutionally allowed mandates and has repeatedly committed to fair and peaceful 2023 elections. The main candidates are Bola Tinubu (APC), Atiku Abubakar (Peoples Democratic Party, PDP), Peter Obi (Labour Party, LP), and Rabiu Kwankwaso (New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP). Since 1999, only the APC and the PDP parties have ruled the country.

Advice

Remain apprised of the political situation, avoid all public demonstrations and political gatherings as a precaution, and avoid discussing politically sensitive topics in public. Adhere to all instructions issued by the local authorities. If clashes break out nearby, take shelter in a safe, nongovernmental building.