Pacific Ocean: Hurricane Orlene tracking northward as of late Oct. 2 /update 3

Event

Hurricane Orlene has weakened into a Category 2 hurricane and is tracking northward over the eastern North Pacific Ocean late Oct. 2. As of 21:00 MDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 140 km (85 miles) northwest of Cabo Corrientes, Jalisco State.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will track over Las Islas Marias over the coming hours before making landfall on the Mexican mainland south of Mazatlan in far southern Sinaloa State as a Category 1 hurricane the evening of Oct. 3. The storm is forecast to weaken rapidly into a tropical storm as it tracks over land across southern Sinaloa and into western Durango states early Oct. 4. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming hours and days.

As of late Oct. 2, authorities have issued the following coastal watches and warnings in relation to the storm:

Hurricane Warning

• Las Islas Marias

• The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan

Tropical Storm Warning

• The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas

• The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

Hurricane Watch

• The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas

• The coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Forecast models predict rainfall totals of 15-25 cm (6-10 inches) over Islas Marias, 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) over Nayarit and southern Sinaloa states, and 2.5-7.5 (1-3 inches) over Jalisco, Colima, and southwest Durango states through Oct. 4. The heavy rainfall could trigger flash flooding and landslides in affected areas. Storm surge could cause coastal flooding in the Islas Marias and along the coast of mainland Mexico in the areas covered by watches and warnings. Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting portions of the west coast of Mexico and are forecast to spread northward to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the coming days. Mexico's National Meteorological Service (SMN) has warned that the system will bring intense punctual rains to Jalisco and Colima states, very heavy rainfall to Sinaloa, Nayarit, and Michoacan, and heavy rainfall to Durango. Strong winds and rough seas are expected along the coasts of Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, and Colima.

Ahead of the approach of Orlene, authorities in Sinaloa State have released water from dams across the state to reduce the risk of flooding and the ports of Mazatlan and Puerto Vallarta have closed until further notice. Authorities have established around 120 emergency shelters across Sinaloa for those unable to shelter at home safely and officials in Mazatlan have identified ten at risk-neighborhoods that are being prepared for evacuation. Authorities have closed ports across Nayarit, Jalisco, and Colima states.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
National Weather Service
Mexican Meteorological Service