Mexico: Hurricane Orlene makes landfall and tracking north-northeastward over southern Sinaloa State early Oct. 3 /update 4

Event

Hurricane Orlene made landfall over southern Sinaloa State close to the border with Nayarit State as a Category 1 hurricane at around 08:45 MDT Oct 3 and is tracking north-northeastward over southern Sinaloa. As of 10:00 MDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 80 km (50 miles) east-southeast of Mazatlan, Sinaloa State.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken rapidly into a tropical depression as it tracks northeastward across southern Sinaloa and into western Durango states Oct. 3, before dissipating over central Durango early Oct. 4. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming hours and days.

As of early Oct. 3, authorities have issued the following coastal watches and warnings in relation to the storm:

Hurricane Warning

• The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan

Tropical Storm Warning

• The coast of mainland Mexico from Punta Mita to San Blas

• The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Forecast models predict rainfall totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) over northern Nayarit and southern Sinaloa states, and 2.5-7.5 (1-3 inches) over southwest Durango states through Oct. 4. The heavy rainfall could trigger flash flooding and landslides in affected areas. Storm surge could cause coastal flooding along the coast of mainland Mexico in the areas covered by warnings. Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the southwest coast of Mexico, southern parts of the Baja California Peninsula, and the Gulf of California over the coming days. Mexico's National Meteorological Service (SMN) has warned that the system will bring torrential rainfall to parts of Nayarit and Sinaloa states Oct. 3 and heavy downpours will also affect parts of Durango, Jalisco, Colima, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, and Guanajuato states. Strong winds and rough seas are expected along the coasts of Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, Baja California Sur, and Colima states.

Ahead of the approach of Orlene, authorities in Sinaloa State released water from dams across the state to reduce the risk of flooding and established dozens of emergency shelters for those unable to shelter at home safely. At least 128 people in Escuinapa Municipality were pre-emptively evacuated ahead of the storm. Residents in Palmar de Cuautla in Nayarit State have also been evacuated as of Oct. 3. Authorities have closed or restricted navigation at ports across Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco, and Colima states, including Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo. Flights have been suspended at Licenciado Gustavo Díaz Ordaz International Airport (PVR) in Puerta Vallarta from late Oct. 2-early Oct. 3. Schools have suspended classes in several municipalities of Sinaloa, Jalisco, and Nayarit states.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
National Weather Service
Mexican Meteorological Service