19 Oct 2024 | 09:25 AM UTC
Caribbean Sea: Tropical Storm Nadine tracking westward across far western Caribbean Sea early Oct. 19 /update 1
TS Nadine tracking westward across western Caribbean Sea early Oct. 19. Landfall likely over Belize District, Belize, early Oct. 19.
Tropical Storm Nadine is tracking westward towards Belize early Oct. 19. As of 04:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 115 km (75 miles) east of Belize City, Belize.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will maintain its strength and make landfall over the southern Belize District in Belize, south of Belize City, over the coming hours. The system is likely to weaken into a tropical depression as it tracks westward across northern Cayo District then across northern Peten Department in Guatemala before dissipating over the far eastern part of Chiapas State, Mexico, early Oct. 20. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming hours and days.
As of the early Oct. 19, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:
Tropical Storm Warning
Belize City, Belize to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel
Tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area through the afternoon of Oct. 19. Widespread rainfall totaling 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) is forecast across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz states in southern Mexico. Isolated rainfall of more than 30 cm (12 inches) is also possible through late Oct. 22. Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore flow near and to the north of where the center of the storm moves inland.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect—and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
