Mexico: Remnants of Orlene tracking northeastward over southern Durango State late Oct. 3 following landfall over Sinaloa State /update 5

Event

Remnants of Orlene is tracking northeastward over southern Durango State late Oct. 3 following landfall over southern Sinaloa State close to the border with Nayarit State as a Category 1 hurricane at around 08:45 MDT Oct 3. As of 22:00 MDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 170 km (105 miles) east-northeast of Mazatlan, Sinaloa State. Forecast models indicate that the storm will dissipate over the coming hours. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur over the coming hours.

As of late Oct. 3, authorities have rescinded all coastal watches or warnings in relation to the storm. Forecast models predict additional rainfall of 2.5-5 cm (1-2 inches) across portions of western Mexico through Oct. 4. The heavy rainfall could trigger flash flooding and landslides in affected areas. Mexico's National Meteorological Service (SMN) has warned that the system will bring heavy rainfall of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) over Colima, Durango, Jalisco, Nayarit, and Sinaloa states and rainfall of 2.5-5 cm (1-2 inches) over Aguascalientes, Guanajuato, Michoacan, and Zacatecas states through early Oct. 4.

Ahead of the approach of Orlene, authorities in Sinaloa State released water from dams across the state to reduce the risk of flooding and established dozens of emergency shelters for those unable to shelter at home safely. At least 128 people in Escuinapa Municipality were pre-emptively evacuated ahead of the storm. Residents in Palmar de Cuautla in Nayarit State were also evacuated as of Oct. 3. Authorities closed or restricted navigation at ports across Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco, and Colima states, including Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo. Flights were suspended at Licenciado Gustavo Díaz Ordaz International Airport (PVR) in Puerta Vallarta from late Oct. 2-early Oct. 3. Schools suspended classes in several municipalities of Sinaloa, Jalisco, and Nayarit states.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
National Weather Service
Mexican Meteorological Service