Ethiopia: Fighting in northern regions is likely to continue through mid-November, as of Oct. 18 /update 8

Event

Fighting in the northern Tigray, Afar, and Amhara regions will likely continue through mid-November. In a recent development, the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) seized control of Shire and Alamata, Oct. 17. The two towns were previously controlled by the Tigrean People's Liberation Front (TPLF) regional army. Tigrean authorities also confirmed the capture of Shire town, located 140 km (87 miles) northwest of the regional capital Mekelle.

The Ethiopian government stated Oct. 17 that it aimed to seize airports and other infrastructure currently under the control of Tigray forces, rejecting the African Union Commission's calls for an immediate cessation of hostilities between the warring parties.

In conflict zones, heightened security measures and movement restrictive measures, including curfews and roadblocks, and telecommunications disruptions, are likely to continue. Federal government airstrikes in Tigray, notably in Mekelle, Adwa, and Axum cities, will also likely persist. Rallies in response to conflict developments, including the capture of Shire town, may occur, particularly in Addis Ababa's Meskel Square. Anti-government demonstrations may also occur in federal government-controlled areas. There is a heightened threat of violence at these events. All gatherings will likely result in localized ground travel disruptions.

Curfews
In response to the ongoing fighting, authorities in Amhara have reportedly maintained curfew measures in select areas.

• Weldiya: A nightly 19:00-06:00 curfew is in place until further notice for local residents, and vehicles, from 18:00.

• Dessie: Movement of people and services in restaurants, nightclubs, bars, and grocery shops are prohibited after 19:00.

• Debre Birhan: Displaced persons are restricted from entering or leaving their shelters after 18:00, vehicle movements are prohibited, and bars and restaurants should close from 20:00.

• Kombolcha: People movement, taxi services, restaurants, bars, groceries, and cafes are authorized until 23:00. Hoteliers, bed and breakfast facilities, and residential and apartment rentals are required to provide copies of ID cards of their tenants to security forces. Gatherings in entertainment facilities are also prohibited. Moving around the city with weapons is prohibited.

• Sekota: Pedestrian movement is restricted 19:00-06:00 and from 18:00 for vehicles. Moving around the city with weapons is prohibited. Displaced persons are not allowed to move outside the shelter camps.

• Lalibela: Entering or leaving the city is prohibited from 19:00-06:00. No vehicle is allowed to move during that time. Moving around the city with unauthorized weapons is prohibited.

Context

The current round of fighting in the country's north has been ongoing since late August, breaching the March 2022 cessation of hostilities agreement; both the federal government and TPLF rebels blamed each other for the resumption of conflict. The African Union-led peace efforts have been delayed due to disagreements over the agenda of talks and logistics.

Advice

Consider deferring nonessential travel to Amhara, Afar, and Tigray regions until the situation stabilizes. Avoid all military installations, administrative buildings, and strategic infrastructure that may be targeted in attacks, including power stations and media, communications, and transport facilities. Persons in Amhara, Afar, and Tigray regions should liaise with trusted contacts.

Avoid all demonstrations, crowds, and concentrations of security personnel. Immediately depart the area if violence occurs or crowds form; take shelter in a secure building. Confirm routes, road access conditions, and destination security before conducting ground movements and when planning freight shipments. If travel is unavoidable, do so in convoy and allow additional time to reach destinations due to potential roadblocks. Obtain satellite phones for emergency use; SMS messages are usually more reliable than calls when cellular networks are restricted. Register and maintain contact with diplomatic missions.