Europe: Russia implements heightened alert levels Oct. 20; extends flight restrictions at southwestern airports until Oct. 28 /update 89

Event

Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a decree raising alert levels nationwide Oct. 20 in relation to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine; this decree is in conjunction with the declaration of martial law in four Ukrainian regions Moscow claims to have annexed. The decree implements a "basic readiness level" nationwide in Russia, a "high readiness level" for all regions in the Central and Southern federal districts; and a "medium response regime" in all regions bordering Ukraine, which includes Krasnodar, Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Voronezh, Rostov, and Russian-annexed Crimea. The basic readiness level requires increased security at military and government facilities and key infrastructure. The "high readiness level" also enables governors in those regions to restrict and inspect traffic and to requisition civilian infrastructure to meet the needs of the armed forces. The medium alert regime grants wider powers to requisition civilian infrastructure and property for defense purposes and allows governors in those border regions to further restrict entry and exit from the regions, forcibly resettle civilians to safe areas, and implement measures to protect public order. Regional governors state they will not currently implement many of the more restrictive measures available to them. Authorities could implement additional restrictive measures or increased alert levels, including martial law, at short notice.

Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) has extended the suspension of flight operations at 10 airports in southwestern parts of the country and at one airport in Russian-annexed Crimea until at least 03:45 MSK Oct. 28. Impacted facilities include Anapa Airport (AAQ), Belgorod International Airport (EGO), Bryansk International Airport (BZK), Elista International Airport (ESL), Gelendzhik Airport (GDZ), Krasnodar International Airport (KRR), Kursk Vostochny Airport (URS), Lipetsk Airport (LPK), Rostov-on-Don Airport (RVI), and Voronezh International Airport (VOZ) in Russia, in addition to Simferopol International Airport (SIP) in Russian-annexed Crimea. The measure was previously slated to expire Oct. 22.

Airspace Closures
The airspace of numerous countries remains closed to all Russian aircraft and flights. Russia has implemented reciprocal bans from Russian airspace for airlines operated by those countries, including EU member nations, the UK, Canada, the US, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and Japan. In addition, several airlines not necessarily impacted by the national airspace closures have decided to partially or fully suspend services using Russian airspace.

Belarus has partially closed its airspace, including the southern Brest Region and areas south of Asipovichy and Krichev in the Mogilev Region. The EU has banned overflights of its airspace by Belarusian airlines, and numerous airlines are avoiding Belarusian airspace or have suspended overflights of Belarus. Finally, Ukrainian airspace remains closed to all commercial air traffic.

Travel Restrictions
Authorities in Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have barred Russian citizens who hold Schengen tourist and work visas from entering their countries. Exceptions apply for humanitarian reasons, as well as for dissidents, family members of EU citizens, residence permit holders, the movement of goods, diplomatic missions, and transit to and from the Kaliningrad exclave.

Additionally, Finnish authorities have introduced entry restrictions for Russian nationals with Schengen tourist visas. Russian visa holders may still enter Finland to study or work. Diplomats, members of the political opposition, and Russians with direct family members in Finland may also still enter the country.

The EU has announced a suspension of the EU-Russia visa facilitation agreement; however, the bloc has rejected calls from some nations for an outright ban on Russian citizens traveling to Europe.

Russian Travel Restrictions
Russia has introduced a ban on road freight transportation for companies based in the EU, Norway, Ukraine, and the UK through Dec. 31. This applies to road freight traveling to Russia, as well as transiting Russia toward third countries. Various goods are exempt from the ban, including meat, fish, milk, some types of vegetables and confectionery, cocoa, grain products, alcohol, fertilizers, pharmaceutical products, contraceptives, paper and cardboard, watches, musical instruments, film and sound recording equipment, and nuclear reactors. The Russian Ministry of Transport has declared that the delivery of goods from these countries by road will be carried out by trans-shipping the freight to domestic carriers in border areas in the Pskov, Kaliningrad, Leningrad, and Murmansk oblasts, the Republic of Karelia, and Saint Petersburg. The new regulations do not apply to the Kaliningrad region.

Russia has recently expanded the list of EU officials banned from entering in response to EU sanctions and continued weapons shipments to Ukraine. The ban now includes unspecified senior EU military officials, senior law-enforcement officials, and representatives of European defense companies involved in delivering military equipment to Ukraine.

Travel Warnings
Several governments, including those of the US, France, the UK, Australia, Bulgaria, Canada, and Poland have issued travel advisories calling on their nationals to avoid travel to Russia and for those currently in that country to depart by commercial means when it is safe to do so.

Heightened Security and General Disruptions
Opposition protests will likely continue across Russia in reaction to President Vladimir Putin's Sept. 21 executive order mandating a partial military mobilization in the country. Security forces will almost certainly deploy heavily to any related gatherings that may materialize. Mass arrests may occur. Various security incidents, including sporadic acts of vandalism or arson, have targeted military recruitment offices nationwide, including in Saint Petersburg, Nizhny Novgorod, and Tolyatti.

Russian authorities have erected mobile enlistment offices near various border crossings in an effort to intercept men of fighting age attempting to flee the country. Such offices are reportedly in operation at border crossings with Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Finland.

Regional authorities in Russia have implemented a "high" (yellow) terror threat level in regions bordering Ukraine, including the Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts, as well as in the Russian-annexed city of Sevastopol. The yellow terror threat is the middle level on a three-tier scale where "increased" (blue) is the lowest level and "critical" (red) is the highest. Authorities have not offered official justifications for the high terror threat level; however, Ukrainian saboteurs are believed to be active in border areas, and several incidents could be attributed to them. Additionally, cross-border artillery shelling occasionally strikes border villages in Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk oblasts, often in response to artillery fire from Russia. Authorities occasionally increase the terror threat in other regions bordering Ukraine, including Voronezh and Rostov oblasts; however, no terror threat warnings are currently active in these regions.

Several countries sharing borders with Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia have implemented heightened security. Hungary, Moldova, Slovakia, and Lithuania have enacted states of emergency. Nevertheless, Moldova, Slovakia, Romania, Hungary, and Poland are all keeping their borders with Ukraine open and are receiving refugees.

The Latvian government has extended a state of emergency in municipalities bordering Russia, including Aluksne, Balvi, Ludza, Augsdaugava, Kraslava, and Daugavpils. It has also closed the Pededze border crossing point with Russia and instructed the State Border Guard to carry out enhanced border surveillance of the Latvian-Russian border.

Ukraine has closed its border checkpoints with Belarus, Russia, and the breakaway Transnistria region of Moldova to foreign nationals; however, Ukrainian citizens are permitted to return. Authorities in Moldova increased security nationwide following a series of security incidents, including explosions and shootings, in the Transnistria region.

Sanctions
The EU imposed additional sanctions on Russia effective Oct. 8. As part of the eighth package of sanctions, EU member states have agreed to ban the import from Russia of various goods, including vehicles, textiles, plastic, wood pulp, paper, certain types of machinery and appliances, precious stones, precious metals, leather, and ceramics. A ban on the import of finished and semi-finished steel products will be phased in; a three-month wind-down period will allow for the execution of signed contracts for semi-finished products, while a transition period of two years will be allowed for semi-finished steel products with strict technical requirements.

The EU also expanded the list of items prohibited from export to Russia, including electronic components that may be used in the defense and security sectors, possible chemical weapons precursors, firearms, and any goods that may be used for capital punishment. New restrictions on the sale, supply, transfer, or export of additional goods used in the aviation sector have been introduced.

Seven entities have been added to the EU sanctions list including Russian defense companies and the Russian Central Election Commission. The sanctions also target individuals at the Russian Ministry of Defense, those involved in the illegal referendums in Ukraine, and those assisting sanctioned persons and entities to evade sanctions. EU sanctions and other restrictive measures now apply to 1,236 individuals and 115 private and state-owned entities. Russian authorities will likely implement countersanctions or other measures in retaliation.

Previous packages of sanctions target Russian financial institutions, state-owned enterprises, private businesses, and specific individuals using a wide array of measures, including import and export restrictions, financial restrictions, travel bans, and asset freezes.

The EU previously agreed to ban 90 percent of Russian oil imports by the end of 2022. The ban targets oil delivered by tankers; the Russian Druzhba pipeline continues to transfer oil to Hungary and Slovakia. The Czech Republic, which is also served by the Druzhba pipeline, has refused to pay for Russian oil.

Aside from governmental sanctions, hundreds of companies have either suspended or terminated their Russian operations. Financial services, including PayPal, Visa, Mastercard, American Express, and Western Union, have suspended operations in the country. American Express and Western Union have also suspended all operations in Belarus.

Additionally, multiple governments have expelled numerous Russian diplomats on various grounds, including espionage and other national security concerns. Moscow typically retaliates in a similar fashion. Such tit-for-tat moves may reduce available consular services in each country, though core services will likely be maintained while diplomatic missions remain open.

Russia has stopped supplying natural gas to Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland, Poland, and Bulgaria. Russian authorities may decide to restrict further or entirely cut off natural gas deliveries to other European countries over the coming weeks.

The Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU) has halted gas transit through the Sokhranivka gas metering station and the Novopskov gas compressor station, which are both located in Russian-occupied areas. The volume of Russian gas shipped to Europe via Ukraine has subsequently dropped by around one-third.

Maritime Disruptions
A UN-backed agreement between Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine assures safe passage for grain shipments from Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhne to an inspection point near Istanbul via a so-called “blue corridor." The Joint Coordination Center (JCC) in Turkey monitors and implements this accord.

The International Maritime Organization has issued advisories concerning the ongoing danger posed to maritime navigation by drifting sea mines, primarily in the Black Sea's Northwest, West, and Southwest sectors. Such mines have been discovered in the coastal waters of Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria. These three countries have proficient naval ordnance disposal teams that typically tow mines to low-traffic areas for safe destruction.

Civilian vessels generally cannot operate in the northern Black Sea or the Sea of Azov; several civilian vessels were damaged in the region in the first weeks of the conflict, including two vessels sunk, and Russian naval forces have allegedly detained at least three others. International sanctions ban Russian vessels and Russian-operated ships from accessing EU, US, and UK ports.

Anti-Western Sentiment
Heightened anti-Western sentiment is possible in Russia and Belarus in reaction to the international response to the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine. While there is currently no increased direct security threat to Western or other foreign nationals in Russia or Belarus, isolated incidents of low-level harassment are possible. A potential rise in anti-Western sentiment could also result in increased scrutiny, harassment, or coercion of foreign nationals by border guards, police, and other officials.

Advice

Confirm flight status with carriers; do not check out of accommodations until onward travel is confirmed. Avoid nonessential travel to affected border regions. Heed authorities' instructions; remain calm and cooperative if questioned by law enforcement officers or other officials. Carry proper identification, including a passport with a current Russian or Belarusian visa, if one is required. Prepare for disruptions to card payments in Russia. Ensure alternative payment methods are available. Refrain from discussing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine or other politically sensitive topics, including on social media services.

Resources

European Union Aviation Safety Agency
French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs
Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media
UK Travel Advice Russia