Philippines: Tropical Storm Nalgae is tracking west-northwest across the Calabarzon Region evening Oct. 29 /update 4

Event

Tropical Storm Nalgae, known in the Philippines as Paeng, is tracking west-northwest over the Calabarzon Region, Philippines, the evening of Oct. 29 following landfall over Batangas Province the afternoon of Oct. 29 and earlier landfalls over the southern tip of Catanduanes Island and Camarines Sur Province early Oct. 29. As of 17:00 PST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 89 km (55 miles) south-southeast of Manila, Philippines.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will track northwestward across the Calabarzon Region and exit into the South China Sea over the coming hours. The storm is forecast to strengthen into a typhoon by early Oct. 31 and make a sharp turn to track northwards through the afternoon of Nov. 1. Nalgae is forecast to weaken again into a tropical storm as it gradually turns to track northwestward towards southeastern mainland China through the afternoon of Nov. 3. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of the evening of Oct. 29, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has warned of heavy to intense rainfall over the Calabarzon Region as well as Marinduque, Metro Manila, Mindoro, northern Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands, and Romblon provinces, and moderate to heavy rains over the rest of central and northern Philippines through the evening of Oct. 29. Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 3 is in effect for southern Central Luzon, western Calabarzon, and northern Mimaropa regions while Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 2 and 1 are in place over the rest of Luzon as well as the Visayas and northern Mindanao. Officials will likely update and extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days as the system progresses.

Authorities declared a state of calamity for Aklan Province and the municipality of Tapaz in Capiz Province; authorities are likely to declare additional states of calamity over the coming hours and days. As of early Oct. 29, reports indicate that at least 72 people across the Philippines have died and 14 others are missing due to landslides and flooding, including 50 fatalities in Datu Odin Sinsuat Town, Maguindanao del Norte Province. Authorities have pre-emptively evacuated more than 7,300 people from flood-prone areas in Bicol, Central Visayas, Eastern Visayas, Mimaropa, Northern Mindanao, and Western Visayas regions. Thousands of people remain displaced across 113 evacuation centers.

All services at Clark International Airport (CRK) are suspended Oct. 29. Due to strong winds, flights at Manila Ninoy Aquino International Airport (MNL) were suspended through 18:00 Oct. 29 or until conditions improve; as of writing flights remain suspended. Authorities have suspended sea travel in Bicol Region except in Camarines Norte Province as well as Eastern Samar and Northern Samar provinces; land travel is suspended from mainland Luzon to the island provinces of Catanduanes and Masbate, and to the Visayas and Mindanao to ease traffic congestion on the Maharlika Highway and ports in Albay, Camarines Sur, and Sorsogon provinces. At least 22 national roads in Bangsamoro, Cagayan Valley, Eastern Visayas, Soccsksargen, and Western Visayas regions are impassable due to flooding, landslides and damage while at least seven national roads have limited access.

Authorities have confirmed power outages across portions of Albay, Aurora, Batangas, Camarines Norte, Northern Samar, Nueva Ecija, Sorsogon, Southern Leyte, and Quezon provinces due to the storm. At least 121 houses were totally destroyed by the storm, and at least 171 houses were partially damaged. Classes remain suspended in parts of northern and central Philippines.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Further flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration