North Korea: Pyongyang reportedly fires missile over Japanese territory toward Pacific Ocean early Nov. 3 /update 2

Event

North Korea reportedly fired a missile over Japanese territory early Nov. 3, prompting Japanese authorities to briefly urge individuals in Miyagi, Niigata, and Yamagata prefectures to seek shelter before officials confirmed that the projectile landed in the Pacific Ocean. Japanese officials have advised individuals in the country to avoid any suspicious objects that might be missile debris; no missile debris impacts were immediately reported in Japan. There were no immediate reports of damage or injuries in connection with the incident.

Context

North Korea's recent series of missile launches is almost certainly intended to coincide with the Vigilant Storm joint military exercise between the US and South Korea that began Oct. 31. The tests prompted South Korean officials to fire three air-to-ground missiles toward the sea north across the Northern Limit Line, the disputed maritime border in the West Sea (Yellow Sea). On Nov. 2, Pyongyang also launched 100 rounds of artillery off its east coast toward the demilitarized zone. Additional North Korean provocations remain likely over the coming weeks. While former South Korean President Moon Jae-in adopted a conciliatory approach to North Korea, newly elected President Yoon Suk-yeol will likely take a tougher stance and possibly engage in retaliatory action should North Korea increase its posturing.

Despite attempts at jumpstarting diplomacy, the geopolitical dynamics on the Korean Peninsula remain largely unaltered, as North Korea has previously stated that it will only give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for concrete moves to reduce perceived US threats against it. North Korean leaders have previously warned of stronger actions in response to the latest US sanctions. However, both sides will likely avoid any actions that could escalate into a full-scale conflict.