North Korea: Pyongyang launches three missiles toward East Sea Nov. 3 /update 3

Event

North Korea reportedly fired two short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) and a suspected inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) toward the East Sea (Sea of Japan) Nov. 3. According to South Korean military personnel, the ICBM originated in Pyongyang's Sunan District and flew approximately 750 km (466 miles) at an altitude of at least 1,920 km (1,193 miles) before failing in-flight. Authorities in Seoul further indicate the SRBMs were launched from Kaechon, South Pyongan Province, in North Korea, and traveled a distance of around 330 km (205 miles) and at a maximum altitude of 70 km (44 miles). There were no casualties or damage reported. The Nov. 3 tests prompted Japanese authorities to briefly urge individuals in Miyagi, Niigata, and Yamagata prefectures to seek shelter; no missile debris impacts were immediately reported in Japan.

Context

North Korea's recent series of missile launches is almost certainly intended to coincide with the US-Korea bilateral military exercise Vigilant Storm that began Oct. 31. North Korean officials have threatened additional acts of provocation amid reports of an extension of the Vigilant Storm drills.

On Nov. 2, Pyongyang fired at least 23 unidentified missiles off its east and west coasts toward the Yellow Sea (West Sea) and Sea of Japan (East Sea). The Nov. 2 tests elicited South Korean officials to launch three air-to-ground missiles toward the sea north across the Northern Limit Line, the disputed maritime border in the West Sea (Yellow Sea). That same day, Pyongyang also shot 100 rounds of artillery off its east coast toward the demilitarized zone.

Despite attempts at jumpstarting diplomacy, the geopolitical dynamics on the Korean Peninsula remain largely unaltered, as North Korea has previously stated that it will only give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for concrete moves to reduce perceived US threats against it. North Korean leaders have previously warned of stronger actions in response to the latest US sanctions. However, both sides will likely avoid any actions that could escalate into a full-scale conflict.