Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone 9 tracking east-southeastwards in the Coral Sea as of Jan. 18

Event

Tropical Cyclone 9 is tracking east-southeastwards in the Coral Sea as of Jan. 18. As of 14:00 NCT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 678 km (421 miles) northwest of Noumea. Forecast models indicate the system will gain strength slightly, before making a close approach to New Caledonia and Vanuatu early Jan. 19, passing between the countries. The system is then likely to weaken into a Tropical Low by early Jan. 21 as it tracks generally southeastward away from New Caledonia and Vanuatu. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Jan. 18, Meteo France New Caledonia has issued yellow (lowest level on a three-tier scale) strong wind, rain, and large wave warnings across most of North and Loyalty Islands provinces. The Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazards Department has warned of isolated heavy rainfall and thunderstorms across the country through at least Jan. 19. Authorities will likely issue warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Meteo France New Caledonia
Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazards Department